Talking Points:
– USDOLLAR Rebounds From Trendline Support as ADP Tops Forecast
– EUR/USD Preserves Ascending Channel Formation Ahead of ECB Meeting
– Bullish AUD/USD Setup Vulnerable to Australia/China Data

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10391.06

10398.3

10370.71

0.20

88.99%

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):
Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index rebounds from channel support as ADP Employment (+281K) raises bets for strong Non-Farm Payroll print; current NFP forecast stands at +215K.
Need a marked deviation from market expectations to see NFP alter the Fed’s policy outlook.
Will continue to favor downside targets as USDOLLAR continues to carve series of lower highs & lows and retains bearish momentum in the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
Will retain approach to ‘sell bounces’ in the USD as long as Fed remains reluctant to move away from its easing cycle.

EUR/USD:
Looks poised to preserve the bullish channel going into the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision; market participants widely looking for more details on the non-standard measures (TLTRO & QE).
See greater risk for verbal intervention as EUR/USD trades above the opening price of the ECB’s June 5 meeting.
RSI continues to show risk for a further consolidation in the EUR/USD as it retains the bearish momentum carried over from the end of 2013.

AUD/USD:
Appears to have carved a higher-high around 0.9500; 0.9520 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) .
At risk for larger correction should the RSI fail to maintain the near-term bullish structure.
Break below trendline support will open up the risk of seeing a move back to 0.9330-40 support zone.
Widening trade deficit in Australia may put increased pressure on Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to toughen verbal intervention.
Australia Retail Sales, Building Permits & China Purchasing Manger Indices (PMI) in focus ahead of U.S. NFPs

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Read More:
Price & Time: USD/JPY breaking point
ECB Preview: Bullish EUR/USD Setup Vulnerable to Verbal Intervention

USDOLLAR Daily

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
Interim Support: 10,354 to 10,375 (50.0 retracement)

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

MBA Mortgage Applications (JUN 27)