Talking Points:
Dollar Rebounds Before Bear Trend Solidifies and NFPs Hit
Euro: How Would a Hold on Policy Impact the Market?
British Pound Yield Advantage Versus Dollar Highest in 3 Years
Dollar Rebounds Before Bear Trend Solidifies and NFPs Hit
A last minute bounce for the US dollar has balanced the market before the ever-important nonfarm payrolls (NFPs) release. If the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) had stumbled through another session, it would have confirmed the worst series of losses for the benchmark in 11 months and likely tipped the scales on a 16-month congestion pattern. Breaking such prominent support would materially alter both the trend and presumptions of activity level – a direct contrast to the general state of volatility we are currently facing. Developing a trend in a market that is systemically negating momentum and conviction is exceptionally difficult and thereby a low probability event. That said, while conditions may foil trends, it doesn’t preclude volatility.
For volatility, we have the convergence of a perfect drain on market activity. We have seen a steady decline in realized and forecasted activity measures for all asset classes. From the FX-based VIX, we are only one-day removed from a record low (5.53 percent). To further exacerbate the situation, the Independence Day market holiday for the US represents one of the most dependable seasonality effects in financial markets – a further withdrawal of liquidity and subsequent narrowing of trading range. This makes for an extraordinary situation. Already extremely low, this holiday could bring a trough in activity. Of course, if it is the ‘extreme’ low, that would suggest that a turn may be at hand. Given July statistically sees the biggest increase in volatility measures of any other months, this may not be far off the mark.
With the market environment in mind, we will better be prepared for what to expect from the June labor data. Volatility from ‘surprise’ outcomes (deviations from consensus) can generate a volatility response, but it is unlikely to instigate a strong drive…at least until next week. The NFPs figure generally captures the market’s immediate attention, though the ‘qualitative’ measures – like the unemployment, participation and wage growth rate – have started to carry more influence since the Fed dropped its forward guidance targets. If there is a clear improvement in the broad range of data, it could stoke Fed rate hopes next week when market participants are back in full force.
Euro: How Would a Hold on Policy Impact the Market?
Just a month ago, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced a range of initiatives aimed at supporting economic activity, curbing disinflation and revive private lending. Initially, the Euro sunk as the central bank lowered its benchmark rates (including a negative deposit rate) and announced a target-LTRO. These directly reduce the yield and demand the currency offers. Yet, that initial tumble didn’t last. Why? Because we are competing against a very motivated market force: appetite for return. Appetite for higher rates has sent investors to depressed and high-yielding European assets. Stimulus helps to reduce the implied risk with these investments, but the premium will eventually fall below equilibrium. In this meeting, there is little need to move again so soon…unless they are adamant in their need to drive the euro lower.
British Pound Yield Advantage Versus Dollar Highest in 3 Years
Where most other dollar-based majors put in some degree of correction, GBPUSD muscled to yet another multi-year high. This strength falls squarely on the sterling’s shoulders. One of the best performing currencies this past session, a jump in the Markit construction survey and Natinowide housing price index for June offered another lift in rate speculation. Looking to 2-year UK government bond yields, a 0.93 percent reading is the highest level since June 2011 and also represents the biggest premium to its US counterpart in the same amount of time. The service sector and composite activity reports in the upcoming session will have a tall task to keep this perfection priced in.
Australian Dollar: RBA Governor Says Currency Too High, Dollar Undervalued
Effective central bank currency manipulation depends on how committed the market believes you are to driving the exchange rate. The RBA was very vocal this morning, but most of it is seen as bluster that will not lead to tangible action to forcibly alter the market. Governor Stevens this morning said the market underestimates an Aussie dollar drop and that the US dollar is undervalued. But will he do anything to realize that?
Chinese Yuan on Edge of Rally, Data Attempts to Catalyze Move
The Chinese government’s non-manufacturing activity report for June was offered a relatively flat reading – a modest ease from the previous month at 55.0 but well in growth territory. The HSBC service and composite readings for the same period blew the consensus out of the water. With USDCNH carving out a bearish reversal pattern, this update is well placed. Yet, even top tier indicators struggle to move the Renminbi.
Emerging Market Currencies Diverge Further from Capital Markets
Emerging Market capital asset benchmarks posted notable gains this past session. The MSCI Emerging Market ETF rose 0.3 percent on the day to bring it back up to range support. Yet, volume here was just as anemic as the advanced economy markets. Meanwhile, the more liquid EM currencies were weakening. The Brazilian Real, South African Rand and Mexican Peso gave ground to the day’s dollar gains.
Gold Falls Back into Range as Jobs Report’s Impact on Dollar, Risk, Yields Comes Into Focus
Any hope that the strong hiccups of bullish interest from gold these past weeks would feed an underlying trend have all but vanished. The metal has fallen back into a quiet trading pattern with tame volume and leveling open interest amongst derivatives. Perhaps US labor data today can revive interest. This round of event risk can move risk trends, inflation forecasts and dollar bearings – gold’s primary themes.**Bring the economic calendar to your charts with the DailyFX News App.
ECONOMIC DATA
GMT
Currency
Release
Survey
Previous
Comments
1:00
CNY
PMI Non-Manufacturing (JUN)
55.5
Service sector expansion implies economy is growing
1:30
AUD
Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (MAY)
0.0%
0.2%
Reflects Consumer Confidence
1:30
AUD
Building Approvals (MoM) (MAY)
3.2%
-5.6%
Housing data has triggered bubble concerns in Australia as with many other countries
1:30
AUD
Building Approvals (YoY) (MAY)
8.0%
1.1%
1:35
JPY
Markit PMI Services (JUN)
49.3
Though the BoJ is confident of its policy objectives, growth is still slow to blossom
1:35
JPY
Markit PMI Composite (JUN)
49.2
1:45
CNY
HSBC PMI Services (JUN)
50.7
These proprietary surveys tend to be more volatile than their government counterparts
1:45
CNY
HSBC PMI Composite (JUN)
50.2
7:45
EUR
Italian Markit PMI Composite (JUN)
52.7
Will be a significant driver behind ECB’s policies
7:50
EUR
French Markit PMI Composite (JUN F)
48.0
48.0
7:55
EUR
German Markit PMI Composite (JUN F)
54.2
54.2
8:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Markit PMI Composite (JUN F)
52.8
52.8
8:30
GBP
Official Reserves (Changes) (JUN)
-$613M
Strong numbers might encourage the BoE to move up its timetable on rate hikes
8:30
GBP
Markit PMI Services (JUN)
58.3
58.6
8:30
GBP
Markit PMI Composite (JUN)
58.6
59.0
9:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (MAY)
0.3%
0.4%
A key ‘broad’ economic reading for the Eurozone that is under the ECB’s stewardship with fresh accommodation
9:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (MAY)
1.8%
2.4%
11:45
EUR
European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
0.15%
0.15%
The ECB announced a round of measures just last month, there is little expectation of quick follow up
11:45
EUR
European Central Bank Deposit Facility Rate
-0.10%
-0.10%
12:30
CAD
International Merchandise Trade (C$) (MAY)
-0.30B
-0.64B
A key component to growth for the Canadian economy
12:30
USD
Change in Non-Farm Payrolls (JUN)
210K
217K
The Fed follows certain mandates to determine its monetary policy, and unemployment is an important. The Fed had set a target unemployment rate of 6% before it would consider raising interest rates last June. It has sense dropped the objective, but the impression remains amongst market participants
12:30
USD
Unemployment Rate (JUN)
6.3%
6.3%
12:30
USD
Labor Force Participation Rate (JUN)
62.8%
12:30
USD
Underemployment Rate (JUN)
12.2%
12:30
USD
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (JUN)
0.2%
0.2%
12:30
USD
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (JUN)
2.0%
2.1%
12:30
USD
Average Weekly Hours (JUN)
34.5
34.5
12:30
USD
Trade Balance (MAY)
-$45.0B
-$47.2B
Significant deviations from expectations causes fluctuation in currency value
12:30
USD
Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 28)
312K
312K
Shows number of people in labor market actively looking for a job
12:30
USD
Continuing Claims (JUN 21)
2580K
2571K
13:45
USD
Markit PMI Services (JUN F)
61.2
Economic recovery another important mandate of Fed. Figures will be strong catalyst behind the timing of interest rate change
13:45
USD
Markit PMI Composite (JUN F)
61.1
14:00
USD
ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (JUN)
56.0
56.3
GMT
Currency
Upcoming Events & Speeches
12:30
EUR
ECB President Mario Draghi Holds Press Conference
13:00
EUR
Merkel, Draghi, Schaeuble & Weidmann Speak on Euro Economy
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
To see updated SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS for the Majors, visit Technical Analysis Portal
To see updated PIVOT POINT LEVELS for the Majors and Crosses, visit our Pivot Point Table
CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMT
SCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT
Currency
USD/MXN
USD/TRY
USD/ZAR
USD/HKD
USD/SGD
Currency
USD/SEK
USD/DKK
USD/NOK
Resist 2
13.5800
2.3800
12.7000
7.8165
1.3650
Resist 2
7.5800
5.8950
6.5135
Resist 1
13.1500
2.3000
11.8750
7.8075
1.3250
Resist 1
6.8155
5.8475
6.2660
Spot
12.9418
2.1289
10.6645
7.7501
1.2466
Spot
6.6888
5.4511
6.1665
Support 1
12.8350
2.0700
10.2500
7.7490
1.2000
Support 1
6.0800
5.3350
5.7450
Support 2
12.6000
1.7500
9.3700
7.7450
1.1800
Support 2
5.8085
5.2715
5.5655
INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT
CCY
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
EUR/JPY
Gold
Res 3
1.3750
1.7247
102.19
0.8930
1.0692
0.9524
0.8822
139.83
1345.75
Res 2
1.3732
1.7223
102.04
0.8917
1.0679
0.9508
0.8806
139.61
1340.98
Res 1
1.3714
1.7199
101.89
0.8904
1.0665
0.9492
0.8789
139.40
1336.21
Spot
1.3679
1.7152
101.59
0.8878
1.0639
0.9460
0.8756
138.97
1326.67
Supp 1
1.3644
1.7105
101.29
0.8852
1.0613
0.9428
0.8723
138.54
1317.13
Supp 2
1.3626
1.7081
101.14
0.8839
1.0599
0.9412
0.8706
138.33
1312.36
Supp 3
1.3608
1.7057
100.99
0.8826
1.0586
0.9396
0.8690
138.11
1307.59
v
— Written by: John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact John, email jkicklighter@dailyfx.com. Follow me on twitter at http://www.twitter.com/JohnKicklighter
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