Talking Points:
– USDOLLAR Benefits From 288K NFP; Struggles to Push Back Above Former Support
– EUR/USD Fails to Maintain Bullish Setup as ECB Sees T-LTRO Up to EUR 1T
– AUD/USD Holds Near-Term Support Despite Stronger RBA Verbal Intervention

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10433.91

10442.4

10391.22

0.42

159.68%

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):
Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index & the Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaks out of the bearish trend as Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) climb 288K, jobless rate slips to 6.1% – lowest since September 2008.
However, former support around 10,440 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) appears to be acting as new resistance.
Bearish outlook remains as USDOLLAR retains broader downward trending channel from earlier this year, with the next topside objective stands at the 10,470 pivot.
Questions remains whether 288K NFP will alter the Fed’s policy outlook.

EUR/USD:
Fails to retain the bullish setup from June as European Central Bank (ECB) stands unanimous on non-standard measures & sees targeted Long-Term Refinancing Operations (LTRO) reaching up to EUR 1T.
As the pair turns around ahead of the 1.3700 handle, could see a more meaningful assault on 1.3500 as ECB presses on with easing cycle.
Will watch support/resistance for now as RSI remains stuck in wedge/triangle formation.

AUD/USD:
Breaks down from ascending channel formation as Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Glenn Stevens toughens verbal intervention.
Catching support around 0.9330-40, but waiting for key triggers on the RSI as it breaks near-term bullish momentum; still waiting for the longer-term trend to give way.
Could see a move back towards 0.9200 handle once all of the bullish RSI structures are wiped out.

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Read More:
Price & Time: Dollar Dead Cat or Real Reversal?
Trade Setups in EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD for ECB, NFPs

USDOLLAR Daily

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
Interim Support: 10,354 to 10,375 (50.0 retracement)

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Change in Non-Farm Payrolls (JUN)