Talking Points
GBPNZD clears resistance / 200DMA- Scalp bias bullish
Pair now at resistance- looking to buy dips while above 1.96
Major event risk tomorrow from the UK
GBPNZD Daily Chart
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
GBPNZD breaks above key resistance / May opening range high- bullish
Resistance objectives 1.9757, ~ 1.9840 (TL resistance) & 1.9895-1.9916
Support now at 1.9600/26, 1.9432/53- bullish invalidation
Daily RSI resistance trigger break dating back to 2013- bullish
Event Risk Ahead: UK 1Q GDP Tomorrow
GBPNZD Scalp Chart
Notes: The GBPNZD has posted an impressive rally off the May lows with the pair taking out key resistance & the monthly opening range this week. Interim resistance stands at 1.9757 which is defined by the 50% retracement of the descent off the 2014 high as well as the April high (1.9759) and a breach above this mark further validates our broader bias.
Intra-day RSI divergence at the highs and a clear support trigger in momentum has our immediate focus weighted to the downside against 1.9757 at the close of US trade. Bottom line: look to buy pullback’s in the pair heading into the close of the month while above the 1.9647/66 with only a break below the 1.96-handle invalidating our near-term directional bias. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Key Threshold Grid
Entry/Exit Targets
Timeframe
Level
Technical Relevance
Bearish Invalidation
Daily / 30min
1.9757
50% Retracement / April High
Break Target 1
30min
1.9800/11
Big Figure / 1.618% Fib Extension
Break Target 2
Daily / 30min
~1.9840
TL Resistance (Support Mirror)
Break Target 3
30min
1.9875
Soft Resistance / Pivot
Break Target 4
Daily / 30min
1.9895 – 1.9916
61.8% Retracement / 1.618% Ext
Support Target 1
30min
1.9705
Soft Support / NY Session Low
Bullish Invalidation
Daily / 30min
1.9648/66
23.6% Retrace / 100% Ext / 100DMA
Break Target 1
Daily / 30min
1.9598 – 1.9609
38.2% Retracement / 200DMA
Break Target 2
30min
1.9576
38.2% Retracement
Break Target 3
30min
1.9518
50% Retracement
Break Target 4
30min
1.9460
61.8% Retracement
Break Target 5
30min
1.9430
Weekly ORL
Average True Range
Daily (20)
137
Profit Targets 32-35pips
*ORH: Opening Range High
*ORL: Opening Range Low
Other Setups in Play:
AUDUSD Scalps Target Channel Break- Bearish Sub 9300
GBPAUD Scalps Target Key Resistance- Bullish Above 1.7920
USDOLLAR, Gold Setups Target Key Resistance- Breakouts Pending
GBPUSD Risks Major Support Break Ahead of Key UK/US Data- 1.6820 Key
NZDJPY Monthly Opening Range Trade- Bearish Sub 89.50
EURAUD Scalp Setup Favors Selling Rallies Sub-1.5030
—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
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Source: Daily fx