Talking Points:
Euro at Risk if Disappointing PMIs Bolster ECB Stimulus Speculation
British Pound Rally May Not Find Added Fuel in 1Q UK GDP Revision
Australian Dollar Rebounds, Yen Drops on Upbeat Chinese PMI Data
The preliminary set of May’s Eurozone PMI data headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The region-wide composite measure is expected to tick gently lower to 53.9, down from a three-year high at 54.0 recorded in the prior month. Fundamental news-flow from the currency bloc has increasingly disappointed relative to consensus forecasts over recent months (according to data from Citigroup). That suggests analysts are underestimating the degree of malaise in the area, opening the door for a downside surprise. Such an outcome may amplify bets on an imminent expansion of ECB stimulus, compounding downward pressure on the Euro after it made a tentative technical break lower yesterday.
The second revision of first-quarter UK GDP figures is expected to confirm output grew 0.8 percent in the three months through March. The year-on-year growth rate is seen at 3.1 percent, the highest since the fourth quarter of 2007. The British Pound has enjoyed a swell in supportive monetary policy expectations and an upbeat GDP print would certainly not fall out of step with that dynamic. The extent to which a now significantly backward-looking data set can offer enough beyond what is already priced in to generate upside follow-through is suspect however.
The Australian Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.4 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move followed an upbeat Chinese Manufacturing PMI release from HSBC. The index jumped to 49.7 in May, topping expectations of a print at 48.3. While a print below the 50 “boom-bust” level still indicates factory-sector activity likely shrank this month, the pace of contraction fell to the lowest since December. That hints a pivotal industry in the world’s second-largest economy may be carving out a bottom and readying a recovery. That bodes well for Australia, which counts on China as its top export market, and consequently for RBA policy bets. The Japanese Yen fell as the PMI print fueled risk appetite and sent Asian stocks higher, weighing on the safe-haven currency.
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Asia Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
22:00
NZD
ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM)
2.6%
–
1.2%
1:35
JPY
Markit/JMMA Manufacturing PMI (MAY P)
49.9
–
49.4
1:45
CNY
HSBC Manufacturing PMI (MAY P)
49.7
48.3
48.1
3:00
NZD
2Yr Inflation Expectation (2Q)
2.36%
–
2.33%
5:00
JPY
BOJ Monthly Economic Report (MAY)
–
–
–
European Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP
PREV
IMPACT
7:00
EUR
French Markit Composite PMI (MAY P)
50.5
50.6
Medium
7:00
EUR
French Markit Services PMI (MAY P)
50.4
50.4
Medium
7:00
EUR
French Markit Manufacturing PMI (MAY P)
51.0
51.2
Medium
7:30
EUR
German Markit/BME Composite PMI (MAY P)
56.0
56.1
High
7:30
EUR
German Markit/BME Manufacturing PMI (MAY P)
54.0
54.1
High
7:30
EUR
German Markit Services PMI (MAY P)
54.5
54.7
High
8:00
EUR
Euro-zone Markit Services PMI (MAY P)
53.0
53.1
High
8:00
EUR
Euro-zone Markit Manufacturing PMI (MAY P)
53.2
53.4
High
8:00
EUR
Euro-zone Markit Composite PMI
53.9
54.0
High
8:30
GBP
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P)
0.8%
0.8%
Medium
8:30
GBP
Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q P)
3.1%
3.1%
Medium
8:30
GBP
Private Consumption (1Q P)
0.6%
0.4%
Low
8:30
GBP
Government Spending (1Q P)
0.2%
0.0%
Low
8:30
GBP
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (1Q P)
1.2%
1.9%
Low
8:30
GBP
Exports (1Q P)
0.0%
2.8%
Low
8:30
GBP
Imports (1Q P)
0.2%
-0.4%
Low
8:30
GBP
Total Business Investment (QoQ) (1Q P)
2.2%
2.4%
Low
8:30
GBP
Total Business Investment (YoY) (1Q P)
–
8.7%
Low
8:30
GBP
Public Sector Net Borrowing (£) (APR)
3.5B
4.9B
Low
8:30
GBP
Public Finances (PSNCR) (£) (APR)
–
15.7B
Low
8:30
GBP
Central Government NCR (APR)
–
22.7B
Low
8:30
GBP
PSNB ex Interventions (APR)
4.8B
6.7B
Low
8:30
GBP
Index of Services (MoM) (MAR)
0.3%
0.2%
Low
8:30
GBP
Index of Services (3M/3M) (MAR)
0.9%
0.9%
Low
10:00
GBP
CBI Trends Total Orders (MAY)
4
-1
Low
10:00
GBP
CBI Trends Selling Prices (MAY)
10
9
Low
Critical Levels
CCY
Supp 3
Supp 2
Supp 1
Pivot Point
Res 1
Res 2
Res 3
EUR/USD
1.3506
1.3594
1.3640
1.3682
1.3728
1.3770
1.3858
GBP/USD
1.6706
1.6795
1.6848
1.6884
1.6937
1.6973
1.7062
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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