Talking Points:
Aussie Dollar Gains After Flat RBA Outcome, China Data a Possible Trigger
German Jobs, Eurozone and UK PMIs May Not Drive EUR & GBP Volatility
US Dollar Looking for a Lifeline in Upbeat ISM Print’s Impact on Fed Bets
The Australian Dollar edged higher after the Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a status-quo monetary policy announcement. Glenn Stevens and company left the benchmark lending rate unchanged at 2.50 percent as expected and once again argued for a “period of stability” going forward.
Absent anything meaningfully outside the priced-in policy outlook from the RBA, the Aussie’s move higher may have been a latent response to Chinese Manufacturing PMI figures released earlier in the day. The official gauge rose to a six-month high of 51.0 while the analogous measure from HSBC rose to a 15-month high of 50.7.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner and a pickup in activity there may bode well for the latter country’s pivotal export sector. In turn, this may ultimately offer a boost to broader growth and set the stage for a less accommodative monetary policy stance.
The economic calendar is relatively quiet in European trading hours. June’s German Unemployment figures and the final revision of the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI print headline the docket. The outcomes are unlikely to carry meaningful implications for ECB monetary policy bets as traders await the central bank’s rate decision later in the week, implying a lackluster response from the Euro.
A slight pullback in UK Manufacturing PMI may likewise pass with little fanfare. The report is expected to show factory-sector activity growth slowed for the second consecutive month in June. UK news-flow has increasingly underperformed relative to expectations recently, suggesting analysts are overestimating the strength of the economy and opening the door for a downside surprise. The British Pound has ignored the string of disappointments on the data front since early April however, so it is difficult to argue that this time will necessarily prove different.
Later in the day, the spotlight turns to the US ISM Manufacturing figure. Consensus forecasts are calling for a print at 55.9, the strongest outcome since December 2013. An upbeat outcome may help narrow the perceived time gap between the end of Fed QE (expected later this year) and the beginning of outright tightening. That may engineer a bounce in the US Dollar after the benchmark currency slid below a pivotal technical barrier.
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Asia Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
23:00
AUD
RPData/Rismark House Px (MoM) (JUN)
1.4%
–
-1.9%
23:30
NZD
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Conf Index
105.4
–
105.7
23:30
AUD
AiG Performance of Mfg Index (JUN)
48.9
–
49.2
23:50
JPY
Tankan Non-Mfg Index (2Q)
19
19
24
23:50
JPY
Tankan Large Mfg Outlook (2Q)
15
17
8
23:50
JPY
Tankan Large Mfg Index (2Q)
12
15
17
23:50
JPY
Tankan Non-Mfg Outlook (2Q)
19
20
13
23:50
JPY
Tankan Small Mfg Outlook (2Q)
3
1
-6
23:50
JPY
Tankan Large All Industry Capex (2Q)
7.4%
6.0%
0.1%
23:50
JPY
Tankan Small Mfg Index (2Q)
1
0
4
23:50
JPY
Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY)
2.20%
–
2.29%
1:00
CNY
Manufacturing PMI (JUN)
51.0
51.0
50.8
1:30
JPY
Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (MAY)
0.8%
0.7%
0.7%
1:35
JPY
Markit/JMMA Japan Mfg PMI (JUN F)
51.5
–
51.1
1:45
CNY
HSBC China Mfg PMI (JUN F)
50.7
50.8
50.8
4:30
AUD
Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision
2.50%
2.50%
2.50%
5:00
JPY
Vehicle Sales (YoY) (JUN)
-0.7%
–
-5.6%
6:30
AUD
Commodity Index (YoY) (JUN)
–
-12.8%
6:30
AUD
Commodity Index AUD (JUN)
–
97.4
European Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP
PREV
IMPACT
7:30
CHF
Manufacturing PMI (JUN)
52.3
52.5
Low
7:45
EUR
Italian Markit/ADACI Mfg PMI (JUN)
53.2
53.2
Low
7:50
EUR
French Markit Mfg PMI (JUN F)
47.8
47.8
Low
7:55
EUR
German Unemployment Change (JUN)
-10K
24K
Medium
7:55
EUR
German Unemployment Rate s.a. (JUN)
6.7%
6.7%
Medium
7:55
EUR
German Markit/BME Mfg PMI (JUN F)
52.4
52.4
Medium
8:00
EUR
Eurozone Markit Mfg PMI (JUN F)
51.9
51.9
Medium
8:00
EUR
Italian Unemployment Rate (JUN)
12.6%
12.6%
Low
8:30
GBP
Markit UK Mfg PMI s.a. (JUN)
56.8
57.0
Medium
9:00
EUR
Eurozone Unemployment Rate (MAY)
11.7%
11.7%
Low
Critical Levels
CCY
Supp 3
Supp 2
Supp 1
Pivot Point
Res 1
Res 2
Res 3
EURUSD
1.3561
1.3619
1.3656
1.3677
1.3714
1.3735
1.3793
GBPUSD
1.6865
1.6971
1.7038
1.7077
1.7144
1.7183
1.7289
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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Source: Daily fx