Talking Points:
Dollar Suffers Another Bout of Selling Led by AUDUSD
British Pound Extends Run Despite BoE Warning
Euro Generating Limited Gains on Strong Periphery Bond Demand
Dollar Suffers Another Bout of Selling Led by AUDUSD
The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) has slid for the fifth consecutive trading day. That matches its worst run in 11 months. Another, meaningful decline would likely drive the benchmark currency through 16-month support and in turn mark a technical shift in the speculative winds. Yet, in the lead up to major event risk (Thursday’s NFPs) and immediate drain of liquidity thereafter (the Independence Day market holiday), this is anything but a clear picture of what the currency is capable of doing through the immediate future. Amongst the majors shaping the dollar’s performance, EURUSD’s breakout Monday lost traction, GBPUSD continued to fresh 6-year highs at a controlled pace and AUDUSD lead the anti-dollar move with a 0.7 percent jump that pushed the pair to 8-month highs.
Given the distribution of the greenback’s performance against its counterparts, neither interest rate speculation nor a strong risk bid seem to be taking the yoke. It is true that the US equities scaled record highs, but that is likely more a function of the status quo rather than a buoyant view for further capital gains. Volatility measures offer good scale on this front. The equities-based VIX slipped 4 percent back to 11.2 percent – very close to its natural low. Meanwhile, the FX-based equivalent nudged slightly to a fresh record low. An effort to take advantage of small oscillations in risk premium is a short-term speculator’s approach and not the foundation for a new and lasting trend in sentiment. Given the steady drain of liquidity (participation) into the extended US holiday weekend, the scope for a serious trend in ‘risk trends’ is thin.
Perhaps more capable of generating heat for the dollar are rate expectations. This past session, Treasury yields and Fed Fund futures offered a modest uptick in US rate forecasts – contradicting the currency’s performance. Event risk this past session did little to direct the hawkish lean – the ISM manufacturing survey unexpectedly softened and an Economic Optimism survey from IBD dropped – but the upcoming listings will certainly peak the market’s interest. The ADP Employment report for June will stoke speculation for Thursday’s Fed-favorite NFPs release (which we will cover live). Furthermore, we have Fed Chair Janet Yellen on tap scheduled to speak at the IMF.
British Pound Extends Run Despite BoE Warning
According to the Bank of England, the market is currently underestimating the possibility of “tail risks”. This is essence the same warning that the Bank of International Settlements gave over the weekend and a growing number of officials and regulators have voiced over the past weeks: financial markets are complacent and that could lead to risky market conditions in not-to-distant future. Meanwhile, pound traders were keeping track of rate speculation. An accelerated rally for short-term (2-year) UK sovereign yields is moving the benchmark back towards its three-year highs. The seven-month high from Markit’s manufacturing PMI survey certainly lent a helping hand in this move. Ahead is an update on the economic sector deemed the UK’s most prominent risk: housing. Home inflation and construction activity readings are due.
Euro Generating Limited Gains on Strong Periphery Bond Demand
One of the key underlying fundamental appeals of the Euro is the inflow of speculative capital looking for a undervalued assets in the aftermath of the Eurozone crisis and the higher yields that came hand-in-hand with the period – though the marginal return on this theme is drawing closer scrutiny. This past session, we saw more of that speculative demand. Yields for periphery Eurozone sovereign bonds were being pulled further down – a reflection of demand – with particularly remarkable moves from Spanish and Irish fixed income. Yet, perhaps showing some level of fatigue behind this investment idea, the Euro was lower against all but the Japanese yen this past session.
Australian Dollar Rallies Despite Reserved Status Quo from RBA
For all intents and purposes, the RBA’s monetary policy meeting ended with a ‘status quo’ stance. That means a hold on the benchmark rate and no speculative fodder to shape expectations of the first hike in the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, Aussie government bond yields edge higher and the currency did the same. Yet with key crosses like AUDUSD so close to resistance, that nudge turned into a break.
US Oil: Strong Growth Forecast or Strong Risk Appetite?
Is the US equity drive to record highs a reflection of economic and financial confidence? Or is it merely the distortion of a market backdrop that leverages the demand for risky assets? US oil is a piece that helps to solve this puzzle. Despite the bid under stocks, the commodity – considered the fuel of growth – was unchanged on the day. Given supply concerns (Iraq), we should expect the demand trigger to be sensitive.
Emerging Market ETF Finds Biggest Rally in 2 Weeks, Currencies Don’t Fare as Well
A global capital market bid would not leave the MSCI Emerging Market ETF without a speculative appeal. The measure jumped 1.0 percent – though the trend of deflating volume continues. Looking at the FX list though, we see a different picture. Most currencies were little changed. Yet, the Brazilian Real put in for a hefty 0.9 percent rally while the Russian Ruble booked a 1.0 percent tumble.
Gold Speculators’ Volume Carries Over But Not Trend
The swell in volume that came with Monday’s quarter-end jump seemed to stick around through Tuesday. Though short of the spike the previous session, derivative turnover was certainly elevated from the recent average. Ahead, gold bugs will be watching Yellen and the US ADP payrolls figures to gauge the outlook for US monetary policy and currency-alternative demand.**Bring the economic calendar to your charts with the DailyFX News App.
ECONOMIC DATA
GMT
Currency
Release
Survey
Previous
Comments
1:00
NZD
ANZ Commodity Price (JUN)
-2.2%
ANZ Commodity Price Index Fell to a 15-month Low
1:30
AUD
Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (MAY)
-200M
-122M
Australia’s trade balance swung to a deficit last month following a strong start to the year. Falling iron ore and coal prices could have been a factor.
6:00
GBP
Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) (JUN)
0.5%
0.7%
UK House Prices are growing at its strongest rates since 2007.
6:00
GBP
Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (JUN)
11.2%
11.1%
7:00
EUR
Spain Unemployment Change (JUN)
-150K
-112K
Spanish employment is expected to continue its seasonal pattern of falling around the month of June.
8:30
GBP
Markit Purchasing Manager Index Construction (JUN)
59.8
60.0
After a strong reading in the beginning of the year, figure is falling from early year highs
9:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (MAY)
0.0%
-0.1%
Eurozone PPI has been steadily declining since 2011, further fueling concerns of deflation in Europe.
9:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (MAY)
-1.0%
-1.2%
10:00
EUR
Ireland Unemployment Rate (MAY)
11.8%
After reaching highs of almost 15%, unemployment is showing signs of falling steadily.
11:00
USD
MBA Mortgage Applications (JUN 27)
-1.0%
Gauges of US real estate across the board showed signs of weakness
11:30
USD
US Consumer Outlook – RBC (JUL)
51.0
Consumer outlook continues to strength to near pre-recession levels.
11:30
USD
Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (JUN)
45.50%
The US labor market is expected to continue adding jobs at pre-recession levels although unemployment remains stubbornly above historical levels.
12:15
USD
ADP Employment Change (JUN)
205K
179K
13:45
USD
ISM New York (JUN)
55.3
Manufacturing levels maintain in expansionary levels above 50.
14:00
USD
Factory Orders (MAY)
0.0%
0.7%
23:30
AUD
AiG Performance of Service Index (JUN)
49.9
Remains barely in contraction despite recent GDP figures that topped expectations.
23:50
JPY
Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (JUN 27)
¥1486.5B
Japanese investors look to shift significantly away from domestic bonds to foreign bonds. Japan buying foreign bonds is the highest it’s been in almost a year.
23:50
JPY
Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (JUN 27)
¥4.7B
23:50
JPY
Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (JUN 27)
¥295.6B
23:50
JPY
Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (JUN 27)
-¥475.2B
GMT
Currency
Upcoming Events & Speeches
1:00
AUD
RBA Governor Glenn Stevens Speaks on Australia Economy
-:-
EUR
German Cabinet Votes on 2015 Federal Budget Draft
15:00
USD
Fed Chair Janet Yellen Delivers Lecture at IMF in Washington
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
To see updated SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS for the Majors, visit Technical Analysis Portal
To see updated PIVOT POINT LEVELS for the Majors and Crosses, visit our Pivot Point Table
CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMT
SCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT
Currency
USD/MXN
USD/TRY
USD/ZAR
USD/HKD
USD/SGD
Currency
USD/SEK
USD/DKK
USD/NOK
Resist 2
13.5800
2.3800
12.7000
7.8165
1.3650
Resist 2
7.5800
5.8950
6.5135
Resist 1
13.1500
2.3000
11.8750
7.8075
1.3250
Resist 1
6.8155
5.8475
6.2660
Spot
12.9418
2.1289
10.6645
7.7501
1.2466
Spot
6.6888
5.4511
6.1665
Support 1
12.8350
2.0700
10.2500
7.7490
1.2000
Support 1
6.0800
5.3350
5.7450
Support 2
12.6000
1.7500
9.3700
7.7450
1.1800
Support 2
5.8085
5.2715
5.5655
INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT
CCY
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
EUR/JPY
Gold
Res 3
1.3750
1.7247
102.19
0.8930
1.0692
0.9524
0.8822
139.83
1345.75
Res 2
1.3732
1.7223
102.04
0.8917
1.0679
0.9508
0.8806
139.61
1340.98
Res 1
1.3714
1.7199
101.89
0.8904
1.0665
0.9492
0.8789
139.40
1336.21
Spot
1.3679
1.7152
101.59
0.8878
1.0639
0.9460
0.8756
138.97
1326.67
Supp 1
1.3644
1.7105
101.29
0.8852
1.0613
0.9428
0.8723
138.54
1317.13
Supp 2
1.3626
1.7081
101.14
0.8839
1.0599
0.9412
0.8706
138.33
1312.36
Supp 3
1.3608
1.7057
100.99
0.8826
1.0586
0.9396
0.8690
138.11
1307.59
v
— Written by: John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact John, email jkicklighter@dailyfx.com. Follow me on twitter at http://www.twitter.com/JohnKicklighter
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