Talking Points
Weekly opening range break turns USDCAD scalp bias positive
Broader outlook constructive above 1.0906- bullish invalidation
Major event risk on tap from US & Canada
USDCAD Daily Chart
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
USDCAD turns ahead of Fib support / TL resistance breach- bullish
Outside key reversal today / RSI resistance trigger break- bullish
Breach above weekly opening range high shifts scalp bias to the topside
Topside resistance objectives at 1.1103/25, 1.1157 & 1.1223/34
Key support now 1.0906- bullish invalidation
Break targets support at 1.0825/30 & 1.0702/24
Key Events Ahead: US Consumer Price Index (CPI) & weekly jobless claims on Thursday and Canadian retail sales & CPI data & US existing home sales on Friday
USDCAD Scalp Chart
Notes: Our focus has shifted back to the topside with today’s breach above the weekly opening range high at 1.0996 and long exposure is favored while above this mark. An outside day reversal pattern on the daily chart paired with a rebound off the 1.0905 key support threshold suggests that a more significant low may have been put in place here. The daily RSI signature remains constructive with the oscillator continuing to respect the 40-threshold with room to spare on subsequent pullbacks since the September lows. A topside trigger / 50-breach today offers further conviction on our directional bias and puts last month’s breakout of the 2003 trendline resistance back into play.
Our immediate focus is to the topside and we’ll look to buy dips / breaks of resistance with RSI conviction while above 1.0996 with only a break / close below 1.0905 invalidating our broader outlook. Caution is warranted heading into key data prints from both countries tomorrow and Friday with pullbacks likely to offer favorable long entries. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Key Threshold Grid
Entry/Exit Targets
Timeframe
Level
Significance
Resistance Target 1
Daily / 30min
1.1066
50% Retracement
Resistance Target 2
30min
1.1089
Last Week’s High / Soft Resistance
Bearish Invalidation
Daily / 30min
1.1103/25
61.8% Retracement / Jan 31st Close
Break Target 1
Daily / 30min
1.1156/57
78.6% Retracement / 100% Ext
Break Target 2
30min
1.1175
Soft Support / Pivot
Break Target 3
30min
1.1195
Soft Support / Pivot
Break Target 4
Daily / 30min
1.1223/34
2014 High / 50% Retracement
Break Target 5
Daily
1.1300
March 2006 Low / Soft Resistance
Support Target 1
30min
1.1020
61.8% Retracement / Pivot
Bullish Invalidation
30min
1.0996/99
50% Retracement / Weekly ORH
Break Target 1
30min
1.0975
Soft Support / Pivot
Break Target 2
30min
1.0952
23.6% Retracement
Break Target 3
30min
1.0929
61.8% Fib Extension
Break Target 4
Daily / 30min
1.0906/09
50% Retrace / Weekly ORL / Feb Low
Break Target 5
30min
1.0872/74
50DMA / TL Support / Pivot
Break Target 6
Daily / 30min
1.0825/31
61.8% & 38.2% Retrace(s) / 100% Ext
Average True Range
Daily (20)
80
Profit Targets 17-20pips
*ORH: Opening Range High
*ORL: Opening Range Low
Other Setups in Play:
GBPAUD Weekly Range in Focus- Bullish Scalp Bias at Risk Sub 1.86
GBPCAD Challenging Feb Range High- Scalp Bias Bullish Above 1.8037
AUDNZD Target Key Resistance- Bullish Scalp Bias at Risk Sub 1.09
GBPNZD Scalps Target Opening Range- Higher Low in Place?
AUDCAD Eyes Key Resistance- Bullish Scalp Bias at Risk Sub 9953
—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars next week Monday- Thursday mornings on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 1130 GMT (11:30ET)
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Source: Daily fx
