The following are brief expectations for the minutes from the 14-15 March FOMC meeting as compiled from the related research reports of 10 major banks.
Overall, they don't expect the minutes to reveal much additional information, noticing that the focus will be on balance sheet discussion, and looking for some upside risks for USD.
TD Research: Hawkish Minutes. "We expect hawkish minutes, reflecting scope for inflation upgrades and likely discussion about four hikes this year. A surprise outcome would be talk about balance sheet normalization, which would likely anchor the USD into Friday."
Credit Agricole CIB Research: Minutes Likely USD Positive. "We will see the minutes from the March FOMC meeting, which produced a ‘dovish’ hike; however, we suspect market reaction may be more constructive for the USD this time."
BNP Paribas Research: USD Dips A Buy. "The disconnect between Fed rhetoric and what the market is pricing continues. US front-end rates have declined since the last FOMC meeting. In our view, temporary USD weakness provides a good buying opportunity."
BofAML Research: Focus on 3 topics: " 1) have downside risks diminished enough to argue that the balance of risks have changed?; 2) how is the Fed accounting for the improvement in financial condition and the stronger global backdrop?; 3) was there a debate about the willingness to risk letting the economy run hot and overheat?"
Barclays Capital Research: Focus on Balance Sheet. "Chair Yellen indicated during the post-meeting press conference that the committee had discussed the balance sheet, and we look to the minutes to gauge the extent of that conversation."
Danske Bank Research: Focus on Balance Sheet. "We will in particular look for discussions on the Fed’s desire to begin shrinking its balance sheet, as Fed Chair Janet Yellen said at the press conference that the FOMC members discussed it at the meeting."
Deutsche Bank Research: Focus on Balance Sheet. "The Fed will attempt to avoid a repeat of the taper tantrum by thoroughly preparing the markets before starting to cut its balance sheet…Investors will be looking for additional clues on the balance sheet in this afternoon's release of the March FOMC minutes."
CIBC Research Research: Not Much Add'l Info. "We’ve had plenty of Fed speakers recently, so the FOMC minutes are unlikely to reveal too much new information."
SEB: Not Much Add'l Info. "Tonight the Fed publishes Minutes from the monetary policy meeting in March when it raised interest rates by 25bps. We do not expect the minutes to contain any news shedding light on the pace of rate hikes going forward."
BTMU: Not Much Add'l Info: "Given Fed Chair Yellen had a press conference following the meeting perhaps we will not get much additional information from the minutes. Information on any debate over FOMC member’s views on the future path of policy will of course be crucial."
