Talking Points:
Aussie Dollar Soars as Jobs Data Tops Forecasts, Denting RBA Rate Cut Bets
US Dollar Looks to Fed Commentary for a Lifeline After Two Days of Losses
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The Australian Dollar outperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade, rising as much as 1.1 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move followed sharply better than expected set of labor market figures. The economy added 37,700 jobs in March, topping estimates for a meager 15,000 increase, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to a three-month low of 6.1 percent. The Aussie’s move higher tracked a parallel surge in front-end bond yields, suggesting traders interpreted the upbeat improvement on the employment front as reducing the scope for on-coming RBA interest rate cuts.
A relatively quiet European data docket will likely see investors looking ahead to US news-flow for direction cues. “Fed-speak”is in focus, with comments from Vice Chair Stanley Fischer and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart of particular note considering both are currently members of the FOMC rate-setting committee. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren are likewise due to speak.
Needless to say, the timing of the first post-QE rate hike is the central question on the minds of investors. Rhetoric pointing to the lingering possibility of a mid-year move, particularly from the typically dovish Mr Lockhart, may breathe new life into the US Dollar and send the currency higher after two days of losses. Alternatively, a more timid tone points to compound selling pressure facing the greenback.
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Asia Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
22:00
NZD
ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (MAR)
-0.8%
–
0.7%
22:30
NZD
BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI (MAR)
54.5
–
56.1
23:01
GBP
RICS House Price Balance (MAR)
21%
15%
14%
1:00
AUD
Consumer Inflation Expectation (APR)
3.4%
–
3.2%
1:30
AUD
New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (MAR)
0.5%
–
2.7%
1:30
AUD
New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) (MAR)
4.4%
–
4.0%
1:30
AUD
Employment Change (MAR)
37.7K
15.0K
42.0K
1:30
AUD
Unemployment Rate (MAR)
6.1%
6.3%
6.3%
1:30
AUD
Full Time Employment Change (MAR)
31.5K
–
41.9K
1:30
AUD
Part Time Employment Change (MAR)
6.1K
–
0.1K
1:30
AUD
Participation Rate (MAR)
64.8%
64.6%
64.6%
1:30
AUD
RBA FX Transactions Government (MAR)
-1299M
–
-434M
1:30
AUD
RBA FX Transactions Market (MAR)
1355M
–
409M
1:30
AUD
RBA FX Transactions Other (MAR)
55M
–
33M
2:00
CNY
Foreign Direct Investment (YoY) (MAR)
2.2%
1.3%
0.9%
3:00
NZD
Non Resident Bond Holdings (MAR)
66.5%
–
65.7%
4:00
JPY
Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (MAR)
-4.0%
–
-2.0%
European Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP/ACT
PREV
IMPACT
6:00
EUR
EU27 New Car Registrations (MAR)
–
7.3%
Low
6:00
JPY
Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (MAR F)
–
14.6%
Low
7:15
CHF
Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (MAR)
0.0%
-1.4%
Medium
7:15
CHF
Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (MAR)
-3.7%
-3.6%
Medium
8:00
EUR
ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
Medium
8:00
EUR
Italy Trade Balance Total (FEB)
–
219M
Low
8:00
EUR
Italy Trade Balance EU (FEB)
–
452M
Low
Critical Levels
CCY
Supp 3
Supp 2
Supp 1
Pivot Point
Res 1
Res 2
Res 3
EURUSD
1.0390
1.0521
1.0603
1.0652
1.0734
1.0783
1.0914
GBPUSD
1.4495
1.4647
1.4744
1.4799
1.4896
1.4951
1.5103
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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Source: Daily fx