Talking Points

NZDUSD testing key resistance after breach of April opening range high
Near-term focus against 7700
Event Risk on TapThisWeek

NZD/USD Daily

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

NZDUSD advance approaches key near-term resistance 7983-7700 (bearish invalidation)
Breach targets TL resistance extending off the October Highs backed by 7809
Interim support at former monthly opening range high- 7629 & 7440/54 (bullish invalidation)
Daily momentum resistance trigger break- bullish (note that 60-resistance has held since June 2014)
Pending support trigger in play- break would be bearish
Event Risk Ahead: US CPI & University of Michigan Sentiment Surveys on Friday and New Zealand CPI early next week

NZD/USD 30min

Notes:The kiwi is approaching a key resistance confluence just ahead of the 77-handle with the long scalp-bias (validated by the break of the weekly opening range) now at risk while below this region. Intraday divergence into the highs with a pending support trigger has us looking lower from here for now. Interim support 7660 backed by 7610/20 & 7567/69. Look for the break sub-7660 to open up the short-bias targeting channel support off the lows.

Bottom line: looking for short-triggers sub-7700. A breach above invalidates our near-term directional bias with such a scenario targeting resistance objectives at 7726/33 & the 2015 open 7791. A quarter of the daily ATR yields profit targets of 25-27pips per scalp. Caution is warranted heading into event risk tomorrow with the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on tap and New Zealand CPI on the Sunday open.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Relevant Data Releases

Other Setups in Play:

USDCAD Short Scalps Face 1.2300 Hurdle Ahead of CPI
AUDJPY Snaps 9 day Losing Streak- Long Scalps Favored Above 91.20
Scalp Webinar: USD at Risk Post Dismal NFPs- AUDUSD to Face RBA
USDCAD Reversal Scalps Pending Below 1.2700 Resistance

—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

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Source: Daily fx