Talking Points
EURUSD March opening range breaks to the topside- bullish
Key resistance- 1.3895- Bearish invalidation
Weekly opening range forming just below
EURUSD Weekly Chart
EURUSD Daily Chart
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
EURUSD Breaches key resistance 1.3800/30range – bullish
Breach opens up targets at 1.3895, 1.3946 & 1.40
Subsequent topside objectives at- 1.4074, 1.4150 & 1.4230
Weekly opening range in focus
Daily RSI hold 60-breach suggests topside remains in focus
Momentum support trigger pending
Support at 1.3800/30, 1.3767 & 1.3706- bullish invalidation
Key Events Ahead: Comments from the ECB President Draghi on Wednesday & US Retail Sales on Thursday & Michigan Confidence on Friday
EURUSD Scalp Chart
Notes: The EURUSD made a decisive break above the 1.3800/30 threshold noted last week- “a level of technical significance that is defined by the 100% extension if the July 2013 advance and the 61.8% retracement from the decline off the 2011 high. This region has caught the monthly high closes for all three of the last major rallies seen in October, December and February. A longer-dated trendline resistance dating back to the 2008 high also converges on this range and if compromised, would suggest that a more meaningful low was put in last month.”
A breach and weekly close above this level has now shifted the medium-term outlook back to the topside. The weekly opening range is forming just below key interim resistance at 1.3895 and we will look for a break of this range to validate our near-term scalp bias. Ideally looking for a fresh weekly low to buy into, but we we’ll respect a break/close above 1.3895 with such a scenario targeting subsequent resistanceobjectives towards the 1.40-handle and above.
Bottom line: the broader bias remains weighted to the topside while above 1.38 with only a break below 1.3706 invalidating this particular setup. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Key Threshold Grid
Entry/Exit Targets
Timeframe
Level
Significance
Bearish Invalidation
Daily / 30min
1.3892/95
61.8% Retrace / 1.618% Ext / Weekly ORH
Break Target 1
Daily / 30min
1.3933/46
78.6% & 100% Extension(s)
Break Target 2
Daily / 30min
1.4000
Big Figure / Psychological Barrier
Break Target 3
Daily / 30min
1.4066/75
100% & 138.2% Extension(s)
Break Target 1
Daily / 30min
1.4113
161.8% Fibonacci Ext
Bullish Invalidation
30min
1.3850
61.8% Ext / Friday Low / Weekly ORL (1.3860)
Support Target 1
Daily / 30min
1.3822/30
61.8% Ext / Feb High / 61.8% Retrace
Support Target 2
Daily / 30min
1.3800
61.8% Retracement / 100% Ext
Support Target 3
Daily / 30min
1.3767
100% Fibonacci Ext
Support Target 4
30min
1.3711/20
Thurs Low / Pivot / March Low (1.3706)
Support Target 5
30min
1.3689
61.8% Extension
Support Target 6
Daily / 30min
1.3641/43
61.8% Retrace / Feb 27 Low / 100DMA
Average True Range
Daily (20)
72
Profit Targets 16-18pips
*ORH: Opening Range High
*ORL: Opening Range Low
Other Setups in Play:
GBPUSD at Risk Heading into BoE, NFPs- Key Resistance 1.6754
EURUSD Opens March at Critical Resistance- ECB / NFP Game Plan
Gold Rally Vulnerable Sub $1361- March Opening Range, NFPs in Focus
USD Setups Heading Into March Open- Key Rate Decisions, NFPs on Tap
EURJPY Rally at Risk Sub 141- Weekly Opening Range in Focus
USDCAD Reversal Underway- Long Scalps Favored Above 1.10
—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars on Wednesday & Thursday morning this week on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 15:30 GMT (11:30ET)
Interested in learning about Fibonacci? Watch this Video
Source: Daily fx
