Talking Points:
Pound Unlikely to Find Lasting Fuel in UK CPI with Scotland Vote in Focus
US Dollar Volatility Risk Favors the Downside as PPI Report Lines Up Ahead
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Augusts’ UK CPI data headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Expectations call for the headline year-on-year inflation rate to fall to 1.5 percent, revisiting the five-year low recorded in May. UK price growth data has increasingly underperformed relative to expectations over recent months, opening the door for a downside surprise. While such an outcome is likely to weigh against BOE interest rate hike bets and put pressure on the British Pound, follow-through is likely to limited as traders wait for the outcome of Thursday’s Scottish Independence Referendum before demonstrating directional commitment.
Later in the day, the spotlight shifts to the US PPI report. Economists are looking for a pickup in wholesale inflation, with the year-on-year rate forecast to tick higher to 1.8 percent. If the release is to generate meaningful volatility, the probability that the US Dollar is left weaker thereafter seems asymmetrically higher than the alternative. An upbeat result would do little to materially amplify already strong speculation that rhetoric from the Federal Reserve will take a hawkish turn at this week’s FOMC meeting. On the other hand, a soft print would arrive after the greenback secured six consecutive days on the upside and set a new 13-month high, an environment that seems increasingly primed for a correction.
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Asia Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
23:30
AUD
ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf.
111.3
–
113.3
1:30
AUD
RBA Releases Sep Meeting Minutes
–
–
–
2:16
CNY
Foreign Direct Investment (AUG)
-14.0%
0.8%
-16.9%
4:00
JPY
Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (AUG)
-49.1%
–
-20.4%
European Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP
PREV
IMPACT
8:30
GBP
CPI (MoM) (AUG)
0.4%
-0.3%
High
8:30
GBP
CPI (YoY) (AUG)
1.5%
1.6%
High
8:30
GBP
Core CPI (YoY) (AUG)
1.8%
1.8%
High
8:30
GBP
RPI (MoM) (AUG)
0.4%
-0.1%
Low
8:30
GBP
RPI (YoY) (AUG)
2.4%
2.5%
Low
8:30
GBP
RPI ex Mort Int. Payments (YoY) (AUG)
2.5%
2.6%
Low
8:30
GBP
PPI Input n.s.a. (MoM) (AUG)
-0.4%
-1.6%
Low
8:30
GBP
PPI Input n.s.a. (YoY) (AUG)
-6.8%
-7.3%
Low
8:30
GBP
PPI Output n.s.a. (MoM) (AUG)
-0.1%
-0.1%
Medium
8:30
GBP
PPI Output n.s.a. (YoY) (AUG)
-0.2%
-0.1%
Medium
8:30
GBP
PPI Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) (AUG)
0.0%
0.0%
Low
8:30
GBP
PPI Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (AUG)
0.9%
0.9%
Low
8:30
GBP
ONS House Prices (YoY) (JUL)
–
10.2%
Low
9:00
EUR
Eurozone Labor Costs (YoY) (2Q)
–
0.9%
Low
9:00
EUR
German ZEW Survey (Curr. Situation) (SEP)
40.0
44.3
Medium
9:00
EUR
German ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) (SEP)
5.0
8.6
Medium
9:00
EUR
Eurozone ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) (SEP)
–
23.7
Medium
Critical Levels
CCY
Supp 3
Supp 2
Supp 1
Pivot Point
Res 1
Res 2
Res 3
EURUSD
1.2801
1.2872
1.2906
1.2943
1.2977
1.3014
1.3085
GBPUSD
1.6128
1.6186
1.6209
1.6244
1.6267
1.6302
1.6360
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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Source: Daily fx