Talking Points:
British Pound May Fall as Soft Inflation Data Erodes BOE Policy Bets
Euro Unlikely to Find Lasting Volatility in German ZEW Survey Outcome
US Dollar May Rise on QE “Taper” Continuity is CPI Tops Expectations
The March set of UK inflation data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline year-on-year CPI measure of price growth is expected to edge lower to 1.6 percent, marking the lowest level since October 2009. Year-on-year measures of wholesale and retail inflation (PPI and RPI, respectively) are likewise expected to tick downward to the weakest levels in nearly five years. Weakening price pressures speak to still-ample spare capacity in the economy. That means soft readings may push back against BOE policy normalization expectations, weighing on the British Pound.
Germany’s ZEW Survey of analyst confidence set to show a gauge of sentiment about the economy’s prospects in the coming six months dropped issued its fourth consecutive decline in April, hitting the lowest level since August 2013. Absent a particularly sharp deviation from expectations, the data is unlikely to generate a potent response from the Euro given its limited implications for ECB monetary policy expectations. Indeed, depending on when the survey was conducted, an upside surprise may be in the cards if analysts’ views were informed by the dovish rhetoric surrounding this month’s ECB policy announcement. Needless to say, that would be hardly supportive of the single currency.
Later in the day, the spotlight shifts to the US CPI report. The baseline year-on-year inflation rate is forecast to rise to 1.4 percent in March having hit a four-month low at 1.1 percent in the prior month. US price growth readings have improved relative to consensus forecasts over the past three months, according to data from Citigroup. That suggests economists are underestimating the recent build in inflationary pressure, opening the door for an upside surprise on today’s print. Such an outcome may help reboot confidence in the continuity of the Federal Reserve’s QE “tapering” cycle, offering a lift to the US Dollar.
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Asia Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
23:01
GBP
BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (MAR)
-1.7%
1.0%
-1.0%
1:30
AUD
RBA April Meeting Minutes
–
–
–
4:00
JPY
Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (MAR)
–
-24.1%
6:00
JPY
Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (MAR F)
–
41.8%
European Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP
PREV
IMPACT
7:15
CHF
Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (MAR)
0.0%
-0.4%
Low
7:15
CHF
Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (MAR)
-0.8%
-0.8%
Low
8:30
GBP
PPI Input n.s.a. (MoM) (MAR)
0.1%
0.1%
Low
8:30
GBP
PPI Input n.s.a. (YoY) (MAR)
0.9%
1.1%
Low
8:30
GBP
PPI Output n.s.a. (MoM) (MAR)
0.1%
0.0%
Medium
8:30
GBP
PPI Output n.s.a. (YoY) (MAR)
0.3%
0.5%
Medium
8:30
GBP
PPI Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) (MAR)
-0.2%
-0.4%
Low
8:30
GBP
PPI Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (MAR)
-6.1%
-5.7%
Low
8:30
GBP
CPI (MoM) (MAR)
0.2%
0.5%
High
8:30
GBP
CPI (YoY) (MAR)
1.6%
1.8%
High
8:30
GBP
CPI Core (YoY) (MAR)
1.6%
1.7%
High
8:30
GBP
RPI (MAR)
255.1
254.2
Low
8:30
GBP
RPI (MoM) (MAR)
0.3%
0.6%
Low
8:30
GBP
RPI (YoY) (MAR)
2.5%
2.7%
Low
8:30
GBP
RPI Ex Mort Int Payments (YoY) (MAR)
2.5%
2.7%
Low
8:30
GBP
ONS House Prices (YoY) (FEB)
–
6.8%
Low
9:00
EUR
German ZEW Survey (Curr Situation) (APR)
51.8
51.3
High
9:00
EUR
German ZEW Survey (Econ Sentiment) (APR)
45.0
46.6
High
9:00
EUR
Eurozone ZEW Survey (Econ Sentiment) (APR)
–
61.5
Medium
9:00
EUR
Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. (€) (MAR)
15.0B
14.1B
Low
9:00
EUR
Eurozone Trade Balance (€) (MAR)
10.0B
0.9B
Low
Critical Levels
CCY
Supp 3
Supp 2
Supp 1
Pivot Point
Res 1
Res 2
Res 3
EUR/USD
1.3721
1.3776
1.3798
1.3831
1.3853
1.3886
1.3941
GBP/USD
1.6629
1.6676
1.6702
1.6723
1.6749
1.6770
1.6817
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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