Talking Points:
Dollar Bounces Along with Yields, CPI a Key Benchmark
British Pound Bulls Fear Weaker Inflation Statistics
Euro Takes Another Hit as ECB’s Threats Pick Up Intensity
Dollar Bounces Along with Yields, CPI a Key Benchmark
US equities may have put up a decent rebound to open the week, but that wouldn’t stop the dollar from doing the same. The S&P 500 jumped 0.8 percent Monday while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (ticker = USDollar) climbed 0.1 percent itself. A simultaneous rise from the benchmark risk measure and a currency normally relegated to its liquidity status is not particularly surprising, however, as we have seen the greenback draw more of its bearings from yield forecasts than traditional sentiment tides as of late. As it happens, the two-year Treasury yield rose 3.4 percent to 0.367 percent on the same day to help put the fire out of the past two week’s tumble in FOMC speculation. If this bounce is to forge new progress, the upcoming CPI release will have to play its part. Evan a mid-2015 hike needs some nascent inflation pressure.
British Pound Bulls Fear Weaker Inflation Statistics
Like the dollar, the sterling faces a key inflation update in the upcoming session. Price readings from the consumer, retail, factory and housing sectors are all due at 8:30 GMT. In comparison to the US inflation data, though the UK data weighs in on a far more contentious interest rate backdrop. Where the market is trying to find a grounding for whether the Fed will be prompted to move on rates in the first or second half of 2015, the view seems pretty clear on the Bank of England. There is a significant expectation that the BoE will hike its benchmark lending rate for the first time by the opening three months of 2015. That would mark the most hawkish of the major central banks – with the exception of the RBNZ – and it is without doubt a key source of the sterling’s strength this past 9 months. Yet what is a boon can quickly turn into a burden. Given the hawkish consensus, the impact of a ‘disappointing’ CPI read could prove particularly heavy on the pound.
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Euro Takes Another Hit as ECB’s Threats Pick Up Intensity
European monetary policy makers are trying their best to strong arm the Euro lower without having to actually resort to monetary policy. EURUSD opened the week more than 40 pips lower than were it close Friday – the biggest weekend drop in 13 months – following remarks delivered by ECB President Draghi. Back on March 13, the central banker took the step to link the exchange rate to monetary policy by suggesting an expensive euro contributed to deflation. The remark kept EURUSD from hitting 1.4000, but the pair really turned a week later because of the Fed. With the recent charge back to 1.3900, Draghi felt he had to up his game. The central banker said “the strengthening of the exchange rate requires further monetary stimulus”. We’ve heard plenty of warnings that they could be provoked or it was only a matter of time that more stimulus is on the way, but this is as explicit as we’ve seen. The question is – does the market believe them?
Yen Crosses Sluggish to Rebound with Nikkei 225, Risk
Though Japanese equity markets were off to a slow start Monday, the Nikkei 225 futures were playing catch up to US and European shares by rising 0.6 percent through early trade Tuesday. The traditional barometer for speculative appetite was materially higher, but the move smacked of weak conviction. The same was true of the yen-funded carry trade. Most of the yen crosses ranged between a 0.2 percent gain or equivalent loss. Given the weight of major support on these pairs (like 101 for USDJPY), investors are more insistent on a fundamental driver for progress.
New Zealand Dollar: Steady Rate Hikes Needs Inflation Backing
In the monetary policy ranks, the New Zealand dollar is at the very upper end of the perception curve – and for good reason. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) was the first developed world central bank to hike its rate at its last meeting; and the authority remains very vocal about its intentions to carry on with further tightening over the next two years. Yet, as loudly as the central bank’s threats are, policy is still dictated by data. And, nothing is more important to rate setting that inflation. That makes the upcoming 1Q CPI reading for New Zealand particularly important. It is difficult to ‘surprise’ to the upside, but bulls born from hawkish expectations could be seriously taken aback by soft data.
Chinese Yuan Hits Fresh 13-Month Low Heading into 1Q GDP Data
USDCNH jumped 0.2 percent Monday and is up for the fifth consecutive session in early Tuesday trade. The consistency in the run is perhaps less impressive than the market’s overall level. With this week’s sustained drive, the exchange rate cleared nearly a month’s worth of resistance around 6.2150-2200 and nowtrades at 13-month highs. A heavy run of event risk meanwhile has already started. This morning, the government reported new lending in March grew more than expect to 1.05 trillion yuan while foreign reserves hit a record $3.95 trillion. The immediate impact was moderate though as the market readied for Wednesday’s 1Q GDP release amid calls for more stimulus.
Emerging Market Currencies Slip Lead by Ruble’s Ukraine Troubles
A further deviation between the picture equities painted Monday and the broader assessment of ‘risk trends’ was the lackluster performance of the Emerging Market set. From the MSCI Emerging Market ETF, a 0.2 percent slip was backed by the third weakest hand in trading volume this year. Meanwhile, JPMorgan’s EM volatility index advanced for a fourth consecutive day to 8.4 percent (still substantially off the March peak 9.3 vols and 2014 high of 10.5 vols on January 30). Looking at the FX performance for the group, the vast majority of the EM currencies were moved lower Monday. Leading the way was the Russian Ruble’s 0.8 percent tumble as the US and Eurozone threatened further sanctions over Ukraine. US President Obama and Russian President Putin reportedly spoke on the country’s turmoil, but little progress was reported.
Gold Advances to Three-Week High After COT Shows Three-Week Drop in Speculative Holdings
Despite a rebound in equities (for risk trends) and a further bounce from the US dollar, spot gold still managed a 0.7 percent climb Monday to push the metal back to $1,328. Looking at the commodity’s performance against various currencies, it comes as little surprise that the biggest jump on the day was associated with the Euro. The threat of stimulus – regardless of the catalyst – will provide a material source of demand for a non-fiat asset. On a broader basis, the general drop in the majors’ benchmark yields (10-year government bond) to the cusp of an 8-month low further weakens the argument against holding a physical asset that suffers from a lack of traditional return. That said, the speculative demand that was the metal’s primary source of strength has significantly eroded as of last. The CFTC’s Commitment of Traders data shows that net long speculative holdings of gold futures have dropped an impressive 35 percent in just the past three weeks.
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ECONOMIC DATA
GMT
Currency
Release
Survey
Previous
Comments
4:00
JPY
Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (MAR)
-24.1%
Since the expansion of the BoJ’s QE program in 2013, Japanese Business Confidence and Capital Spending have been have risen considerably, evident in the steady upward progression of the Japanese Machine Tool Orders Index
6:00
JPY
Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (MAR F)
41.8%
8:30
GBP
Consumer Price Index (MoM) (MAR)
0.2%
0.5%
Since late 2011, the UK’s CPI (YoY) has been in decline. In recent months, the index fell below the BoE’s current inflationary target of 2%. Survey expectations of a modest decline in prices are expected given the overarching trend of slowing inflation this past year. In line with such expectations, UK Housing prices have been on the rise and are expected to have increased through the month of February.
8:30
GBP
Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR)
1.6%
1.7%
8:30
GBP
Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR)
1.6%
1.7%
8:30
GBP
Producer Price Index – Output (YoY) (MAR)
0.3%
0.5%
8:30
GBP
Producer Price Index – Input (YoY) (MAR)
-6.1%
-5.7%
8:30
GBP
Retail Price Index (MoM) (MAR)
0.3%
0.6%
8:30
GBP
Retail Price Index (YoY) (MAR)
2.5%
2.7%
8:30
GBP
DCLG UK House Prices (YoY) (FEB)
7.4%
6.8%
9:00
EUR
German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (APR)
51.8
51.3
Economic Sentiment in Germany and the broader Euro-Zone has suffered modest declines since the beginning of 2014. Concurrently, the euro has appreciated considerably over the past year (>6%). Should the Euro-Zone continue to demonstrate negative economic conditions and should the Euro continue to appreciate against other major currencies, be mindful of the possibility of further QE under ECB President Draghi.
9:00
EUR
German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (APR)
45.0
46.6
9:00
EUR
Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Eco Sentiment) (APR)
61.5
9:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (euros) (FEB)
14.1B
9:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros) (FEB)
0.9B
12:30
USD
Empire Manufacturing (APR)
8.00
5.61
U.S. Inflation Indexes are expected to continue to advance towards the Fed’s inflation target of 2.0% stoking expectations of further depreciation of the US Dollar.
12:30
USD
Consumer Price Index (MoM) (MAR)
0.1%
0.1%
12:30
USD
Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR)
1.4%
1.1%
12:30
USD
CPI ex Food & Energy (MoM) (MAR)
0.1%
0.1%
12:30
USD
CPI ex Food & Energy (YoY) (MAR)
1.6%
1.6%
12:30
USD
Consumer Price Index Core Index s.a. (MAR)
236.122
12:30
CAD
Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) (FEB)
1.0%
1.5%
Canadian Manufacturing Sales continue to oscillate around historical average.
13:00
CAD
Existing Home Sales (MoM) (MAR)
0.3%
13:00
USD
Net Long-term TIC Flows (FEB)
$7.3B
Capital Inflows into the US have continued to trend upwards through 2014 after a sharp decline late last November.
13:00
USD
Total Net TIC Flows (FEB)
$83.0B
14:00
USD
NAHB Housing Market Index (APR)
50
47
22:45
NZD
Consumer Prices Index (QoQ) (1Q)
0.5%
0.1%
The RBNZ has a target inflation of 2-3% but has already engaged its first rate hike and has threatened more.
22:45
NZD
Consumer Prices Index (YoY) (1Q)
1.7%
1.6%
GMT
Currency
Upcoming Events & Speeches
1:30
AUD
Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
12:30
USD
Fed’s Dennis Lockhart Speaks on Financial Markets
12:45
USD
Fed Chair Janet Yellen Speaks on Financial Stability
19:00
USD
Fed’s Charles Plosser Speaks on Financial Stability
20:00
USD
Fed’s Eric Rosengren Speaks on U.S. Economy
20:30
USD
API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
To see updated SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS for the Majors, visit Technical Analysis Portal
To see updated PIVOT POINT LEVELS for the Majors and Crosses, visit our Pivot Point Table
CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMT
SCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT
Currency
USD/MXN
USD/TRY
USD/ZAR
USD/HKD
USD/SGD
Currency
USD/SEK
USD/DKK
USD/NOK
Resist 2
13.5800
2.3800
12.7000
7.8165
1.3650
Resist 2
7.5800
5.8950
6.5135
Resist 1
13.1500
2.3000
11.8750
7.8075
1.3250
Resist 1
6.8155
5.8475
6.2660
Spot
13.0238
2.1207
10.5222
7.7540
1.2535
Spot
6.5614
5.4033
5.9632
Support 1
12.9650
2.0700
10.2500
7.7490
1.2000
Support 1
6.0800
5.3350
5.7450
Support 2
12.6000
1.7500
9.3700
7.7450
1.1800
Support 2
5.8085
5.2715
5.5655
INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT
CCY
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
EUR/JPY
Gold
Res 3
1.3909
1.6826
102.70
0.8865
1.1042
0.9496
0.8770
142.07
1347.18
Res 2
1.3886
1.6801
102.49
0.8848
1.1023
0.9476
0.8750
141.74
1341.86
Res 1
1.3864
1.6777
102.28
0.8832
1.1004
0.9456
0.8730
141.41
1336.54
Spot
1.3819
1.6728
101.86
0.8800
1.0966
0.9416
0.8689
140.76
1325.89
Supp 1
1.3774
1.6679
101.44
0.8768
1.0928
0.9376
0.8648
140.11
1315.24
Supp 2
1.3752
1.6655
101.23
0.8752
1.0909
0.9356
0.8628
139.78
1309.92
Supp 3
1.3729
1.6630
101.02
0.8735
1.0890
0.9336
0.8608
139.45
1304.60
v
— Written by: John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact John, email jkicklighter@dailyfx.com. Follow me on twitter at http://www.twitter.com/JohnKicklighter
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