Talking Points:
British Pound May Not Sustain Gains if CPI Data Offers an Upside Surprise
US Dollar Looking to Fed-Speak for a Lifeline, Plosser and Fisher in Focus
Yen, Aussie Sold as US Yields Recover Amid Churning Fed Policy Speculation
Get Real-Time Feedback on Your Trades with DailyFX on Demand!
December’s UK CPI data takes top billing on the economic calendar in European hours. Expectations call for the headline year-on-year inflation rate to remain at 2.1 percent, unchanged from the prior month. Manufacturing- and service-sector PMI readings for the same period pointed to accelerating price growth however, leaving the door open for an upside surprise. Such a result may offer a near-term boost to the British Pound, but recent chatter about the possibility that the Bank of England will revise its forwardguidance framework to ward off tightening speculation may swiftly cap upward momentum.
Later in the day, the spotlight returns to the US as markets ponder the fate of the Federal Reserve’s QE “tapering” process in the aftermath of December’s dismal employment data. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart struck a hawkish tone yesterday but his remarks failed to prevent a breakdown of the US Dollar. The “Fed-speak” docket heats up today as Charles Plosser and Richard Fisher – presidents of the Philadelphia and Dallas Fed branches – take two the wires. Unlike Lockhart, both Plosser and Fisher are voting members of the rate-setting FOMC committee in 2014. That means their remarks may carry added weight and offer the greenback a lifeline if they too voice support for reducing asset purchases.
On the data front, traders will be watching December’s US Retail Sales report. Economists’ forecasts point to a 0.1 percent increase from November, marking the softest outcome in three months. While a slowdown in retail activity during a holiday-heavy month of the year doesn’t bode well, the release may not generate lasting US Dollar selling in and of itself. Many of the arguments made to explain December’s miss on payrolls – especially those of the weather-related variety – can be applied to a drop in receipts growth as well. With that in mind, a slowdown won’t necessarily offer anything new into the conversation and may be overshadowed by the aforementioned commentary from Fed officials if they opt for a hawkish lean.
The Australian Dollar and the Japanese Yen underperformed in overnight trade, sliding as much as 0.4 and 0.7 percent respectively against their leading counterparts. The move appears to be corrective after both currencies scored strong gains yesterday. Not surprisingly, the moves tracked a rebound in US 10-year Treasury yields as the two rates-sensitive currencies continued to reflect gyrations in the markets’ Fed policy outlook.
New to FX? START HERE!
Asia Session:
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
21:00
NZD
NZIER Business Opinion Survey (4Q)
52
–
38
21:45
NZD
NZ Card Spending – Retail (MoM) (DEC)
0.6%
1.0%
0.7%
21:45
NZD
NZ Card Spending – Total (MoM) (DEC)
1.0%
–
0.3%
21:45
NZD
QV House Prices (YoY) (DEC)
10.0%
–
9.2%
23:50
JPY
Bank Lending incl. Trusts (YoY) (DEC)
2.3%
–
2.2%
23:50
JPY
Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (DEC)
2.6%
–
2.4%
23:50
JPY
Current Account Total (¥) (NOV)
-592.8B
-368.9B
-127.9B
23:50
JPY
Adjusted Current Account Total (¥) (NOV)
-46.6B
27.9B
-59.3B
23:50
JPY
Current Account Balance (YoY) (NOV)
230.1%
74.2%
-130.4%
23:50
JPY
Trade Balance – BOP Basis (¥) (NOV)
-1254.3B
-1236.4B
-1091.9B
4:30
JPY
Bankruptcies (YoY) (DEC)
-15.73%
–
-10.58%
5:00
JPY
Eco Watchers Survey: Current (DEC)
55.7
54.0
53.5
5:00
JPY
Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (DEC)
54.7
–
54.8
Euro Session:
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP/ACT
PREV
IMPACT
7:00
EUR
German Wholesale Price Index (MoM)
0.4% (A)
-0.2%
Low
7:00
EUR
German Wholesale Price Index (YoY)
-1.8% (A)
-2.2%
Low
9:30
GBP
PPI Input n.s.a. (MoM) (DEC)
-0.2%
-0.7%
Low
9:30
GBP
PPI Input n.s.a. (YoY) (DEC)
-1.5%
-1.0%
Low
9:30
GBP
PPI Output n.s.a. (MoM) (DEC)
0.0%
-0.2%
Medium
9:30
GBP
PPI Output n.s.a. (YoY) (DEC)
1.0%
0.8%
Medium
9:30
GBP
PPI Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) (DEC)
0.0%
-0.1%
Low
9:30
GBP
PPI Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (DEC)
0.9%
0.7%
Low
9:30
GBP
CPI (MoM) (DEC)
0.5%
0.1%
High
9:30
GBP
CPI (YoY) (DEC)
2.1%
2.1%
High
9:30
GBP
Core CPI (YoY) (DEC)
1.8%
1.8%
High
9:30
GBP
RPI (DEC)
253.6
252.1
Low
9:30
GBP
RPI (MoM) (DEC)
0.5%
0.1%
Low
9:30
GBP
RPI (YoY) (DEC)
2.7%
2.6%
Low
9:30
GBP
RPI ex Mort Int. Payments (YoY) (DEC)
2.8%
2.7%
Low
9:30
GBP
ONS House Prices (YoY) (NOV) (DEC)
5.9%
5.5%
Low
10:00
EUR
Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (NOV)
1.4%
-1.1%
Medium
10:00
EUR
Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) (NOV)
1.8%
0.2%
Medium
Critical Levels:
CCY
SUPP 3
SUPP 2
SUPP 1
Pivot Point
RES 1
RES 2
RES 3
EURUSD
1.3571
1.3618
1.3645
1.3665
1.3692
1.3712
1.3759
GBPUSD
1.6091
1.6252
1.6317
1.6413
1.6478
1.6574
1.6735
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
To receive Ilya’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE
Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.
Source: Daily fx