Talking Points:
Dollar Hits One-Month Low Despite Biggest Drop for Stocks in Months
British Pound Readies for Heavy Round of Inflation Data, Rate Speculation
Yen Crosses Face First Serious Bear Wave in Three Months
Dollar Hits One-Month Low Despite Biggest Drop for Stocks in Months
The dollar’s performance Monday was not befitting of a safe haven currency…that is if the recent stumble in sentiment is legitimate. One of the market’s most persistent (complacent?) asset classes – US equities – dove to open the week. The S&P 500 dropped the most in two months (1.1 percent) while the Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its largest slide since early October (1.1 percent). Given how unusual it is to see equities stumble, the move did not go unnoticed by risk watchers. And yet, the implications of stimulus-supported benchmarks slipping despite ‘favorable’ data (poor NFPs this past Friday) didn’t seem to run deep enough to leverage the greenback’s safe haven status.
True ‘risk aversion’ is a measure of scale. When the masses are more concerned about what provides the best liquidity and thereby safety rather than what rate of return can be yielded, the scales have shifted towards fear. Under those circumstances, the world’s most broadly held reserve currency is prized for its safe haven status as all other concerns are overlooked. It is clear that we have not hit that extreme. However, we are certainly moving further away from the opposite end of the spectrum where moral hazard wills markets higher. What is important for dollar traders – and truly participants in all markets – is where on this scale we are and whether we are still moving along it.
Monday, global equities dropped sharply, volatility measures inflated and the yen crosses (carry trade) made opening technical moves towards reversal. Yet, we’ve seen plenty of uniform corrections in sentiment that last for little more than a day before reverting back to the prevailing trend. As always, follow through and conviction are far more important to this equation than the technical breaks. While this week offers a number of noteworthy indicators and pieces of event risk, there isn’t any one item that looks like it can turn the tide all on its own. That means the equilibrium between optimism and pessimism would have to be decided by a cumulative and perhaps volatile majority shift. Meanwhile, the greenback seems to be burdened by Friday’s weak NFP showing and subsequent drop from Treasury yields. A rally in Treasuries (fall in yields), however, does not immediately translate into long-US stimulus speculation. The Fed has signaled its turn to Taper, and the burden is now on preventing further moves. So what about those yield losses? The market also buys Treasuries when it is uncertain of global financial stability…
British Pound Readies for Heavy Round of Inflation Data, Rate Speculation
The sterling dropped across the board Monday. The currency’s losses ranged from a 0.6 percent slide against the weakened US dollar to a hefty 1.8 percent plunge versus the yen. There is certainly an element of the pound’s position in the risk spectrum that contributed to its retreat, but the poor performance against the greenback and more risk-leaning currencies suggests there was something more pervasive at work. The indicator on the docket was the little-followed Lloyds Employment Confidence survey for December – which actually approached a five-year high. The material development was the extended retreat in Gilt yields. While the UK government bonds hold a safe-haven status of their own, it is materially more restrained than Treasuries; and more importantly, the pound has been driven to considerable heights on rate expectations. As the 10-year nears 2.8 percent, traders are holding their breath for the round of inflation data due today – headed by the December CPI.
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Yen Crosses Face First Serious Bear Wave in Three Months
Monday marked both the first three-day drop for USDJPY since before the Fed’s Taper announcement December 18 and the biggest single-day decline since September 18 (notably the day the FOMC deferred an expected Taper). The Japanese currency advanced against all its major counterparts, suggesting there is a material risk of a bigger correction. What could counteract expectations of a major upgrade to the BoJ’s open-ended stimulus program in the coming months? Volatility that leads to capital losses that easily overwhelm nonexistent carry.
Euro Yield Outlook Softening, Market Sensitive to Trichet Commentary
The euro weakened against most of its counterparts through the week’s opening campaign. The calendar was light and European equity indexes fair remarkably well given the general sentiment behind global financial markets. For those weighing relative monetary policy, European market rates have softened recently and certainly curbed their advance. Ahead, we have ECB President Trichet speaking on the Troika’s performance.
New Zealand Dollar Rallies After Business Sentiment Hits 20-Year High
It is somewhat refreshing to see a currency respond plainly to a scheduled piece of event risk. The New Zealand dollar leveraged a measurable advance against all of its counterparts after the release of the NZIER business sentiment survey from early this morning. The net 52 percent of respondents expecting improvement is the highest position for the indicator since 2Q 1994. That will help rate hike expectations.
Australian Dollar: 10-Year Yields Drop Below 4.2 Percent
Speaking of yield forecasts, the Australian dollar is struggling to leave behind the stigma of the rate cut regime that the RBA just recently called to a close. The country’s 10-year yield has extended a tumble from its January 6 peak to a 5.3 percent slump below 4.2 percent. That doesn’t serve a wayward carry currency very well. Many may be bidding their time to the Aussie labor stats, but watch for Chinese data without a time.
US Oil Fails to Establish Recovery as Volume Falters
US-based crude prices have not won a two-day advance since December 27. The commodity dropped 1 percent through Monday’s session as aggregate futures volume dropped from last week’s swell. For those monitoring speculative positioning for signals, the COT figures showed last week that the net bullish exposure in futures dropped 6.8 percent (24,278 contracts) – the biggest correction since the final week of June.
Gold Hits a Four Week High as Futures Traders Cover Shorts
A relatively modest 0.4 percent advance on the back of Friday’s 1.7 percent rally has pushed gold above $1,250 for the first time since December 11. The dollar’s recent weakness is playing strong influence on this metal’s performance; but the bullish bearing is measurable against all the majors. Looking to ETF holdings, the first uptick in two months is nowhere near indicative of a change in interest. That said, the COT’s speculative positioning statistics show futures traders added to the long position for a third consecutive week.**Bring the economic calendar to your charts with the DailyFX News App.
ECONOMIC DATA
GMT
Currency
Release
Survey
Previous
Comments
4:30
JPY
Bankruptcies (YoY) (DEC)
-10.58%
Print has been negative since November, 2012.
5:00
JPY
Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (DEC)
54.8
The outlook figure is at levels noe seen since 2006.
5:00
JPY
Eco Watchers Survey: Current (DEC)
54.0
53.5
7:00
EUR
German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (DEC)
-0.2%
October was a four year low for the YoY figure.
7:00
EUR
German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (DEC)
-2.2%
7:45
EUR
French Current Account (euros) (NOV)
-2.1B
Current Account has not remained positive since 2004.
7:45
EUR
French Consumer Price Index (YoY) (DEC)
0.7%
0.7%
Prospects for France have looked negative as of yet and a missed CPI print would not help sentiment.
7:45
EUR
French CPI – EU Harmonised (YoY) (DEC)
0.9%
0.8%
9:00
EUR
Italian CPI- EU Harmonized (YoY) (DEC F)
0.6%
0.6%
YoY CPI has been on the decline since June 2012.
9:30
GBP
Consumer Price Index (MoM) (DEC)
0.5%
0.1%
With the Pound having had a stellar few months of appreciation, a recent turn to the downside may continue fundamentally if CPI misses expectations. A MoM increase of 0.5% is a tall order considering only once did MoM meet 0.5% in 2013. Expect volatility in GBP pairs at this print, although possibly more limited against the greenback ahead of Retail Sales.
9:30
GBP
Consumer Price Index (YoY) (DEC)
2.1%
2.1%
9:30
GBP
Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (DEC)
1.8%
1.8%
9:30
GBP
Retail Price Index (YoY) (DEC)
2.7%
2.6%
9:30
GBP
Retail Price Index Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) (DEC)
2.8%
2.7%
9:30
GBP
Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (YoY) (DEC)
-1.5%
-1.0%
9:30
GBP
Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (YoY) (DEC)
1.0%
0.8%
9:30
GBP
Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (DEC)
0.9%
0.7%
9:30
EUR
Italian General Government Debt (NOV)
2085.3B
Another record high last month.
9:30
GBP
DCLG UK House Prices (YoY) (NOV)
5.5%
We’re at the highest levels since the Fall of 2010.
10:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (NOV)
1.4%
-1.1%
If the MoM figure meets 1.4% expectations, it will be the single best print since July 2011.
10:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (NOV)
1.6%
0.2%
12:30
USD
NFIB Small Business Optimism (DEC)
93.0
92.5
Has not surpassed 95 since 2007.
13:30
USD
Advance Retail Sales (DEC)
0.1%
0.7%
A missed and/or negative retail sales print here could put pressure on the greenback following weaker than expected NFPs.
13:30
USD
Advance Retail Sales Less Autos (DEC)
0.4%
0.4%
13:30
USD
Advance Retail Sales ex Auto and Gas (DEC)
0.4%
0.6%
13:30
USD
Advance Retail Sales Control Group (DEC)
0.3%
0.5%
13:30
USD
Import Price Index (MoM) (DEC)
0.3%
-0.6%
YoY print has remained sub 0 for most of the past two years.
13:30
USD
Import Price Index (YoY) (DEC)
-1.5%
15:00
USD
Business Inventories (NOV)
0.3%
0.7%
Since July, the print has beat expectations.
21:45
NZD
Food Prices (MoM) (DEC)
-0.2%
23:50
JPY
Japan Money Stock M2+CD (YoY) (DEC)
4.3%
4.3%
Money stock growth continues to push record highs on the BoJ’s easing program.
23:50
JPY
Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (DEC)
3.4%
3.4%
GMT
Currency
Upcoming Events & Speeches
8:10
EUR
ECB’s Ewald Nowotny Speaks on Euro Economy
17:45
USD
Fed’s Charles Plosser Speaks on U.S. Economy
18:20
USD
Fed’s Richard Fisher Speaks on U.S. Economy
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
To see updated SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS for the Majors, visit Technical Analysis Portal
To see updated PIVOT POINT LEVELS for the Majors and Crosses, visit our Pivot Point Table
CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMT
SCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT
Currency
USD/MXN
USD/TRY
USD/ZAR
USD/HKD
USD/SGD
Currency
USD/SEK
USD/DKK
USD/NOK
Resist 2
13.4800
2.2500
11.8750
7.8165
1.3650
Resist 2
7.5800
5.8950
6.5135
Resist 1
13.2400
2.2000
10.7250
7.8075
1.3250
Resist 1
6.8155
5.8475
6.2660
Spot
13.1270
2.1840
10.7668
7.7544
1.2722
Spot
6.5748
5.4941
6.1988
Support 1
12.6000
2.1000
10.2500
7.7490
1.2000
Support 1
6.0800
5.3350
5.7450
Support 2
12.4200
1.7500
9.3700
7.7450
1.1800
Support 2
5.8085
5.2715
5.5655
INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT
CCY
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
EUR/JPY
Gold
Res 3
1.3681
1.6565
105.91
0.9204
1.0923
0.8969
0.8343
144.00
1252.06
Res 2
1.3655
1.6535
105.65
0.9183
1.0903
0.8947
0.8321
143.60
1245.82
Res 1
1.3630
1.6506
105.38
0.9162
1.0882
0.8925
0.8300
143.20
1239.58
Spot
1.3579
1.6447
104.86
0.9121
1.0842
0.8881
0.8256
142.40
1227.10
Supp 1
1.3528
1.6388
104.34
0.9080
1.0802
0.8837
0.8212
141.60
1214.62
Supp 2
1.3503
1.6359
104.07
0.9059
1.0781
0.8815
0.8191
141.20
1208.38
Supp 3
1.3477
1.6329
103.81
0.9038
1.0761
0.8793
0.8169
140.80
1202.14
v
— Written by: John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact John, email jkicklighter@dailyfx.com. Follow me on twitter at http://www.twitter.com/JohnKicklighter
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