Talking Points:
US Dollar May Sold as Treasury Yields Sink Amid Risk Aversion
Soft US Retail Sales Data May Amplify Dollar Selling Pressure
Australian Dollar Down as Jobs Data Weighs on RBA Outlook
January’s US Retail Sales report headlines the economic calendar in the hours ahead. Expectations call for a flat result, an outcome that would represent the fourth consecutive month of slowing receipts growth and the softest single reading since March 2013. US economic news-flow has increasingly underperformed relative to consensus forecasts since mid-January. This suggests analysts continue to underestimate the slowdown in the recovery and opens for another disappointment.
The US Dollar is under pressure overnight, tracking US Treasury yields lower as a slump across Asian and European stock markets fuels safe-haven demand for bonds, sending prices higher. A soft US Retail Sales number against a backdrop a Federal Reserve committed to continue “tapering” QE asset purchases may amplify global growth concerns and fuel continued risk aversion. That threatens to continue eroding yield support for the greenback, pushing prices lower.
The Australian Dollar underperformed in overnight trade after January’s Employment data showed the economy unexpectedly lost 3,700 in January. Forecasters were calling for a 15,000 increase before the data crossed the wires. The unemployment rate rose to 6 percent, the highest in over a decade. The weighed against monetary policy expectations, the “period of stability” discussed at last week’s RBA meeting will not soon give way to renewed interest rate hikes.
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Asia Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
21:30
NZD
Business NZ Perf of Manufacturing (JAN)
56.2
–
56.4
23:50
JPY
Domestic CGPI (YoY) (JAN)
2.4%
2.4%
2.5%
23:50
JPY
Domestic CGPI (MoM) (JAN)
0.1%
0.1%
0.3%
0:00
AUD
Consumer Inflation Expectation (FEB)
2.3%
–
2.3%
0:01
GBP
RICS House Price Balance (JAN)
53%
58%
56%
0:30
AUD
Employment Change (JAN)
-3.7K
15.0K
-23.0K
0:30
AUD
Unemployment Rate (JAN)
6.0%
5.9%
5.8%
0:30
AUD
Full Time Employment Change (JAN)
-7.1K
–
-32.1K
0:30
AUD
Part Time Employment Change (JAN)
3.4K
–
9.1K
0:30
AUD
Participation Rate (JAN)
64.5%
64.6%
64.5%
4:00
JPY
Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (JAN)
6.1%
–
6.1%
European Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP/ACT
PREV
IMPACT
7:00
EUR
German CPI – EU Harmonised (YoY) (JAN F)
1.2% (A)
1.2%
Low
7:00
EUR
German CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) (JAN F)
-0.7% (A)
-0.7%
Low
7:00
EUR
German CPI (MoM) (JAN F)
-0.6% (A)
-0.6%
Medium
7:00
EUR
German CPI (YoY) (JAN F)
1.3% (A)
1.3%
Medium
8:15
CHF
Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (JAN)
0.0% (A)
0.0%
Low
8:15
CHF
Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (JAN)
-0.3% (A)
-0.4%
Low
9:00
EUR
ECB Publishes Monthly Report
–
–
Medium
Critical Levels
CCY
Supp 3
Supp 2
Supp 1
Pivot Point
Res 1
Res 2
Res 3
EUR/USD
1.3421
1.3512
1.3552
1.3603
1.3643
1.3694
1.3785
GBP/USD
1.6193
1.6367
1.6481
1.6541
1.6655
1.6715
1.6889
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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Source: Daily fx