Talking Points:
Australian Dollar Gaps Higher to Start the Week on Chinese Exports Surge
Japanese Yen Briefly Strengthens vs. USD After 3Q GDP is Revised Lower
Quiet US, European Data Docket Puts Pre-FOMC “Fed-speak “ in Focus
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The major currencies were little-changed against the US Dollar in late Asian trade. The Australian Dollar gapped higher at the open of the trading week following better-than-expected Chinese export figures while the Japanese Yen edged higher after revised third-quarter GDP data disappointed, but meaningful continuation proved lacking on both fronts.
Seasonal factors may be behind muted price action in the G10 FX space. There remain just two full weeks of trading before activity dries up for the Christmas and New Year holidays celebrated around most of the world’s leading financial centers. That means traders are unlikely to commit to major changes in existing trends with so little time to establish follow-through.
The economic data calendar is relatively muted in European and US session hours. That puts the spotlight on the final day of “Fed-speak” before next week’s FOMC policy announcement. Jeff Lacker, Jim Bullard, and Richard Fisher – Presidents of the Fed’s Richmond, St. Louis, and Dallas branches respectively – are scheduled to speak.
The timing of the first move to “taper” QE asset purchases remains the central object of speculation. However, with just three days separating December’s Fed announcement and the Christmas holiday, investors are likely to wait for the onset of 2014 before betting on policy trends in earnest.
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Asia Session:
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
3:01
CNY
Trade Balance (NOV)
$33.80B
$21.20B
$31.10B
3:01
CNY
Exports (YoY) (NOV)
12.7%
7.0%
5.6%
3:01
CNY
Imports (YoY) (NOV)
5.3%
7.0%
7.6%
21:45
NZD
Manufacturing Activity Volume (QoQ) (3Q)
0.5%
–
-3.5%
21:45
NZD
Manufacturing Activity (3Q)
4.7%
–
-1.2%
23:00
NZD
QV House Prices (YoY) (NOV)
9.2%
–
8.9%
23:50
JPY
GDP (QoQ) (3Q F)
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
23:50
JPY
GDP Annualized (3Q F)
1.1%
1.6%
1.9%
23:50
JPY
Nominal GDP (QoQ) (3Q F)
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
23:50
JPY
GDP Consumer Spending (QoQ) (3Q F)
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
23:50
JPY
GDP Business Spending (QoQ) (3Q F)
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
23:50
JPY
GDP Deflator (YoY) (3Q F)
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.3%
23:50
JPY
Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (NOV)
2.4%
–
2.3%
23:50
JPY
Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (NOV)
2.2%
–
2.0%
23:50
JPY
Current Account Total (¥) (OCT)
-127.9B
148.9B
587.3B
23:50
JPY
Adjusted Current Account Total (¥) (OCT)
-59.3B
120.7B
-125.2B
23:50
JPY
BoP Current Account Balance (YoY) (OCT)
-130.4%
-61.4%
14.3%
23:50
JPY
Trade Balance – BOP Basis (¥) (OCT)
-1091.9B
-1005.5B
-874.8B
0:30
AUD
ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (NOV)
-0.8%
–
-0.1%
1:30
CNY
Consumer Price Index (YoY) (NOV)
3.0%
3.1%
3.2%
1:30
CNY
Producer Price Index (YoY) (NOV)
-1.4%
-1.5%
-1.5%
4:30
JPY
Bankruptcies (YoY) (NOV)
-10.6%
–
-7.3%
5:00
JPY
Eco Watchers Survey: Current (NOV)
53.5
–
51.8
5:00
JPY
Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (NOV)
54.8
–
54.5
Euro Session:
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP/ACT
PREV
IMPACT
6:45
CHF
Unemployment Rate (NOV)
3.2% (A)
3.1%
Medium
6:45
CHF
Unemployment Rate s.a. (NOV)
3.2% (A)
3.2%
Medium
7:00
EUR
German Labor Costs w.d.a. (YoY) (3Q)
1.6% (A)
2.0%
Low
7:00
EUR
German Labor Costs s.a. (QoQ) (3Q)
-0.3% (A)
-0.3%
Low
7:00
EUR
German Trade Balance (€) (OCT)
17.9B (A)
20.3B
Medium
7:00
EUR
German Current Account (€) (OCT)
19.1B (A)
20.0B
Medium
7:00
EUR
German Exports s.a. (MoM) (OCT)
0.2% (A)
1.6%
Low
7:00
EUR
German Imports s.a. (MoM) (OCT)
2.9% (A)
-1.9%
Low
8:15
CHF
Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (OCT)
–
1.0%
Low
9:30
EUR
Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (DEC)
10.0
9.3
Low
11:00
EUR
German Industrial Production (MoM) (OCT)
0.7%
-0.9%
Medium
11:00
EUR
German Industrial Production (YoY) (OCT)
3.1%
1.0%
Medium
Critical Levels:
CCY
SUPP 3
SUPP 2
SUPP 1
Pivot Point
RES 1
RES 2
RES 3
EURUSD
1.3508
1.3593
1.3649
1.3678
1.3734
1.3763
1.3848
GBPUSD
1.6147
1.6246
1.6298
1.6345
1.6397
1.6444
1.6543
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.
Source: Daily fx
