Talking Points:
Euro May Extend Drop as Soft German CPI Fuels ECB Stimulus Bets
British Pound Likely to Overlook Final Revision of 4Q UK GDP Data
US Dollar May Bounce if UofM Revision Tops Economists’ Forecasts
March’s preliminary German CPI report headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Expectations call for the headline year-on-year inflation rate to decline to 1.1 percent, the lowest since August 2010. Weak price growth readings in the Eurozone’s largest economy may fuel concerns about continued disinflation region-wide and drive speculation about a near-term expansion of ECB stimulus efforts, weighing on the Euro. The single currency dropped to a three-week low yesterday.
The final revision of fourth-quarter UK GDP data is expected to match earlier estimates showing output grew 0.7 percent, confirming a marginal slowdown from the 0.8 percent increase recorded in the three months through September. Absent a material deviation from consensus forecasts, the release seems unlikely to yield a significant response from the British Pound considering its limited implications for the near-term direction of BOE monetary policy.
Later in the day, the spotlight shifts to February’s US Personal Consumption and Spending figures as well as the final revision of the March Consumer Confidence measure from the University of Michigan. While the former two data points are expected to print in line with 12-month trend averages and so may not inspire a hearty response from the markets, the latter is expected to be revised higher.
A larger upgrade in line with the better-than-expected outcome on an analogous indicator from the Conference Board earlier in the week may further erode doubts about Fed QE “taper” continuity. That stands to boost the yield attraction of the US Dollar, driving the benchmark currency upward from support at the March swing low.
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Asia Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
23:30
JPY
Household Spending (YoY) (FEB)
-2.5%
0.1%
1.1%
23:30
JPY
National CPI (YoY) (FEB)
1.5%
1.5%
1.4%
23:30
JPY
National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (FEB)
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
23:30
JPY
National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (FEB)
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
23:30
JPY
Tokyo CPI (YoY) (MAR)
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
23:30
JPY
Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (MAR)
1.0%
0.9%
0.9%
23:30
JPY
Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (MAR)
0.4%
0.5%
0.5%
23:30
JPY
Jobless Rate (FEB)
3.6%
3.7%
3.7%
23:30
JPY
Job-To-Applicant Ratio (FEB)
1.05
1.05
1.04
23:50
JPY
Retail Trade (YoY) (FEB)
3.6%
3.5%
4.4%
23:50
JPY
Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (FEB)
0.3%
0.1%
1.6%
23:50
JPY
Large Retailers’ Sales (FEB)
1.3%
0.8%
0.0%
0:05
GBP
GFK Consumer Confidence (MAR)
-5
-6
-7
European Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP
PREV
IMPACT
7:00
EUR
German Import Price Index (YoY) (FEB)
-2.4%
-2.3%
Low
7:00
EUR
German Import Price Index (MoM) (FEB)
0.2%
-0.1%
Low
8:00
CHF
KOF Institute Spring Economic Forecast
–
–
Low
9:30
GBP
GDP (QoQ) (4Q F)
0.7%
0.7%
Medium
9:30
GBP
GDP (YoY) (4Q F)
2.7%
2.7%
Medium
9:30
GBP
Total Business Investment (QoQ) (4Q F)
2.4%
2.4%
Low
9:30
GBP
Total Business Investment (YoY) (4Q F)
8.5%
8.5%
Low
9:30
GBP
Current Account (£) (4Q)
-13.8B
-20.7B
Low
9:30
GBP
Index of Services (MoM) (JAN)
0.3%
0.2%
Low
9:30
GBP
Index of Services (3M/3M) (JAN)
0.9%
0.8%
Low
9:30
GBP
Lloyds Business Barometer (MAR)
–
53
Low
10:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Services Confidence (MAR)
3.7
3.2
Low
10:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (MAR)
101.3
101.2
Low
10:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (MAR)
-3.5
-3.4
Low
10:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (MAR F)
–
-9.3
Medium
10:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (MAR)
0.38
0.37
Low
13:00
EUR
German CPI (MoM) (MAR P)
0.4%
0.5%
High
13:00
EUR
German CPI (YoY) (MAR P)
1.1%
1.2%
High
13:00
EUR
German CPI – EU Harmonized (MoM) (MAR P)
0.4%
0.5%
Medium
13:00
EUR
German CPI – EU Harmonized (YoY) (MAR P)
0.9%
1.2%
Medium
Critical Levels
CCY
Supp 3
Supp 2
Supp 1
Pivot Point
Res 1
Res 2
Res 3
EUR/USD
1.3619
1.3687
1.3714
1.3755
1.3782
1.3823
1.3891
GBP/USD
1.6420
1.6512
1.6562
1.6604
1.6654
1.6696
1.6788
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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