Talking Points:
Euro Looking for a Lifeline in Eurozone CPI Report Ahead of ECB Meeting
Australian, NZ Dollars Move Lower as Risk Appetite Unravels in Asian Trade
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Augusts’ preliminary Eurozone CPI reading headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The benchmark year-on-year inflation rate is expected to edge lower to 0.3 percent, marking the lowest level since October 2009.
In overall terms, price-growth data from the single currency area has cautiously improved relative to consensus forecasts since the beginning of the year, opening the door for an upside surprise. A better-than-expected reading may chip away at speculation about an expansion of ECB stimulus measures at next week’s monetary policy meeting, sending the Euro higher.
Leading survey data disagrees however, pointing to the largest drop in output prices in there months in August. With that said, the extent of recent selling and seemingly stretched speculative net-short speculative positioning suggests the risk of outsized volatility may be asymmetrically greater on the upside than otherwise. For what it’s worth, technical positioning hints a EURUSD bounce may be ahead.
The Australian and New Zealand Dollars underperformed in overnight trade as risk appetite unraveled, weighing on the sentiment-linked high yielders. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark stock index fell 0.2 percent and is on pace to register its first monthly drop since April.
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Asia Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
22:45
NZD
Building Permits (MoM) (JUL)
0.1%
1.0%
3.5%
23:01
GBP
Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (AUG)
0.1%
–
0.1%
23:01
GBP
Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (AUG)
5.5%
–
5.8%
23:05
GBP
GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (AUG)
1
-1
-2
23:30
JPY
National CPI (YoY) (JUL)
3.4%
3.4%
3.6%
23:30
JPY
National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JUL)
2.3%
2.3%
2.3%
23:30
JPY
National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JUL)
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
23:30
JPY
Tokyo CPI (YoY) (AUG)
2.8%
2.7%
2.8%
23:30
JPY
Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (AUG)
2.7%
2.7%
2.8%
23:30
JPY
Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (AUG)
2.1%
2.1%
2.1%
23:30
JPY
Jobless Rate (JUL)
3.8%
3.7%
3.7%
23:30
JPY
Household Spending (YoY) (JUL)
-5.9%
-2.9%
-3.0%
23:30
JPY
Job-To-Applicant Ratio (JUL)
1.1
1.1
1.1
23:50
JPY
Large Retailers’ Sales (JUL)
-0.6%
-0.8%
-1.8%
23:50
JPY
Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (JUL)
1.95%
–
2.30%
23:50
JPY
Retail Trade (YoY) (JUL)
0.5%
-0.2%
-0.6%
23:50
JPY
Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (JUL)
-0.5%
0.3%
0.5%
23:50
JPY
Industrial Production (MoM) (JUL P)
0.2%
1.0%
-3.4%
23:50
JPY
Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL P)
-0.9%
-0.1%
3.1%
1:00
NZD
ANZ Activity Outlook (AUG)
36.6
–
45.1
1:00
NZD
ANZ Business Confidence (AUG)
24.4
–
39.7
1:30
AUD
Private Sector Credit (MoM) (JUL)
0.4%
0.5%
0.7%
1:30
AUD
Private Sector Credit (YoY) (JUL)
5.1%
5.1%
5.0%
3:00
NZD
Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JUL)
5.3%
–
5.4%
4:00
JPY
Vehicle Production (YoY) (JUL)
-1.7%
–
6.6%
5:00
JPY
Housing Starts (YoY) (JUL)
-10.5%
-9.5%
5:00
JPY
Annualized Housing Starts (JUL)
0.871M
0.883M
5:00
JPY
Construction Orders (YoY) (JUL)
–
9.3%
European Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP
PREV
IMPACT
6:00
GBP
Nationwide House Px (MoM) (AUG)
0.1%
0.1%
Medium
6:00
GBP
Nationwide House Px (YoY) (AUG)
10.2%
10.6%
Medium
6:00
EUR
German Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL)
0.1%
1.0%
Medium
6:00
EUR
German Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL)
1.5%
0.4%
Medium
7:00
CHF
KOF Leading Indicator (AUG)
97.8
98.1
Low
8:00
EUR
Italian Unemployment Rate (JUL P)
12.3%
12.3%
Low
8:00
EUR
Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. (2Q)
12.5%
12.7%
Low
9:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (JUL)
11.5%
11.5%
Low
9:00
EUR
Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) (AUG)
0.3%
0.4%
High
9:00
EUR
Euro-Zone CPI – Core (YoY) (AUG P)
0.8%
0.8%
High
9:00
EUR
Italian CPI NIC incl. tobacco (MoM) (AUG P)
0.1%
0.1%
Medium
9:00
EUR
Italian CPI NIC incl. tobacco (YoY) (AUG P)
-0.1%
0.1%
Medium
10:00
EUR
Italian GDP s.a. and w.d.a. (QoQ) (2Q F)
-0.2%
-0.2%
Medium
10:00
EUR
Italian GDP s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (2Q F)
-0.3%
-0.3%
Medium
Critical Levels
CCY
Supp 3
Supp 2
Supp 1
Pivot Point
Res 1
Res 2
Res 3
EURUSD
1.3066
1.3127
1.3154
1.3188
1.3215
1.3249
1.3310
GBPUSD
1.6495
1.6542
1.6564
1.6589
1.6611
1.6636
1.6683
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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Source: Daily fx