Talking Points:
– USDOLLAR Risks Another Lower-High as Bearish RSI Momentum Takes Shape
– GBP/USD to Benefit From U.K. Jobless Claims; Higher-Low in Place?
– EUR/NZD Needs Hawkish RBNZ to Mark Fresh 2014 Lows
The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) show a limited reaction to the positive data prints coming out of the world’s largest economy, and the greenback remains at risk of carving another series of lower-highs & lower-lows over the near-term as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to retain its current approach for monetary policy at the June 18 meeting.
Index
Last
High
Low
Daily Change (%)
Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index
10506.46
10507.31
10483.77
0.09
77.44%
Indeed, the lack of momentum to trade back above former support suggests that the near-term correction is coming to an end, and the greenback may continue to give back the rebound from back in May (10,370) as the bearish momentum on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) takes shape.
As a result, we continue to look for opportunities to ‘sell bounces’ in the dollar, and the reserve currency may weaken further during the summer months as the fundamental developments coming out of the U.S. economy have a limited impact in spurring a material shift in the Fed’s policy outlook.
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USDOLLAR Daily
Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Bearish RSI Raises Risk for Lower-Highs & Lower-Lows
Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
Interim Support: 10,354 to 10,375 (50.0 retracement)
Release
GMT
Expected
Actual
NFIB Small Business Optimism (MAY)
11:30
95.8
96.6
Wholesale Inventories (APR)
14:00
0.6%
1.1%
Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (APR)
14:00
0.9%
1.3%
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— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.
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Source: Daily fx