Talking Points
EURAUD approaching near-term support
Broader outlook bearish sub-1.4730
Medium event risk on tap from Australia
EURAUD Daily Chart
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
EURAUD coming into key near-term support 1.4420/50- bullish invalidation
Break eyes support objectives at 1.4334, 1.4253, 1.4140/66
Resistance 1.4593, 1.4690- 1.4730- bearish invalidation
Daily RSI support trigger break- bearish
Event Risk Ahead: Australian Employment report tomorrow & Chinese Retail Sales on Friday morning
EURAUD Scalp Chart
Notes: EURAUD has now come into near-term support at a confluence of Fibonacci extensions and retracements that range from 1.4418 into 1.4440. Although our broader outlook remains weighted to the short-side, intra-day RSI divergence and proximity to this key support (our bullish invalidation level) leaves the pair vulnerable for a near-term rebound higher.
Bottom line: our immediate focus remains against the 1.4420/40 support zone heading into the close of the week. Note that a break / close below this mark invalidates our scalp bias with such a scenario eyeing head and shoulders objective support targets into the 1.43-handle. Use caution heading into the Australian employment report and Chinese retail sales data later this week with the releases likely to fuel added volatility in the pair. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Key Threshold Grid
Entry/Exit Targets
Timeframe
Level
Technical Relevance
Resistance Target 1
30min
1.4474
Soft Resistance / US Session High
Resistance Target 2
30min
1.4511
23.6% Retracement
Resistance Target 3
30min
1.4555/63
38.2% Retrace / May Low
Bearish Invalidation
Daily / 30min
1.4591/92
50% Retrace / 61.8% Ext
Break Target 1
30min
1.4627
61.8% Retracement / Last Week’s ORL
Break Target 2
Daily / 30min
1.4679/89
78.6% Retrace / 100% Ext
Bullish Invalidation
Daily / 30min
1.4418/39
38.2% & 78.6% Retrace / 100% Ext
Break Target 1
30min
1.4375
Soft Support / Pivot
Break Target 2
Daily
1.4334
2011 High
Break Target 3
Daily
1.4253
88.6% Retracement
Break Target 4
Daily
1.4139/66
1.618% Extension(s)
Average True Range
Daily (20)
99
Profit Targets 24-26pips
*ORH: Opening Range High
*ORL: Opening Range Low
Other Setups in Play:
Breakout or Break Down? NZD/USD Eyes Critical Resistance Pre-NFPs
USDCAD Risks Reversal Ahead of NFPs- 1.0950 Key Resistance
EURUSD Targets 2014 Lows Ahead of ECB/NFP- Opening Ranges in Focus
AUDNZD Testing 2014 Range Highs- 1.09 Key Resistance
GBPUSD Scalps Selling Rallies into May Range Lows- Key Support 1.6750
GBPNZD Scalps Target May Opening Range Break- Bullish Above 1.96
—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
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Interested in learning about Fibonacci? Watch this Video
Source: Daily fx
