Talking Points
EURAUD responds to key resistance 1.4577- 1.4601
Scalp bias constructive above 1.4345
Event risk on tap this week
EUR/AUD Daily Chart
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
EURAUD rebounds off key resistance 1.4577-1.4601- bearish invalidation level
Breach targets objectives at the Andrew’s Pitchfork bisector ~1.4700, 1.4734/50, 1.4800/16
Constructive above 1.4340/45, 1.4302/13- bullish invalidation
Support break targets objectives at 1.4270, 1.4206 & 1.4166.
Daily RSI resistance trigger / 60-breach would be constructive
Event Risk Ahead: Australian NAB Business Confidence/Conditions tonight, China CPI tomorrow, Eurozone Industrial Production tomorrowand CPI on Thursday
EUR/AUD 30min Chart
Notes: An outside key reversal candle last month off pitchfork support shifted our bias to the long side of the EURAUD with the focus on key resistance at the 1.46-handle. This region has continued to cap the advance and remains our near-term bearish invalidation level. Note that the initial pullback off that level last month found support right at former pitchfork resistance and keeps the broader topside play in focus.
Bottom line: looking for long-triggers / buy pullbacks while above 1.4345 withonly a break sub-1.43 shifting our bias back to the short-side. A breach above of the 1.46-handle (on a close basis) offers further validation of our near-term directional bias with such a scenario eyeing subsequent topside objectives. Follow the progress of trade setups like these and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Key Threshold Grid
Entry/Exit Targets
Timeframe
Level
Technical Relevance
Resistance Target 1
30min
1.4498- 1.45
10/8 Swing High / 38.2% Retracement
Resistance Target 2
30min
1.4542
23.6% Retracement / Last Week’s High
Bearish Invalidation
Daily / 30min
1.4575– 1.4601
Weekly ORH (1.4612) / July High / 38.2% Retrace
Break Target 1
30min
1.4668
50% Retracement
Break Target 2
Daily / 30min
1.4700
June Close High / ~Pitchfork Bisector
Break Target 3
Daily / 30min
1.4735/50
200DMA / R1 Monthly Pivot / June High
Break Target 4
Daily / 30min
1.4800/16
61.8% Ext / 50% Retrace / December Low
Support Target 1
30min
1.4428
61.8% Retracement
Support Target 2
30min
1.4377/84
78.6% Retracement / 100DMA
Support Target 3
30min
1.4340/45
9/12 Close / Thursday Low
Bullish Invalidation
Daily
1.4302/13
Monthly ORL / 38.2% Retrace / 50DMA (1.4297)
Break Target 1
Daily
1.4270
Monthly Central Pivot
Break Target 2
30min
1.4237
Sept Swing Low / Soft Support
Break Target 3
30min
1.4206
50% Retracement
Average True Range
Daily (20)
133
Profit Targets 31-34pips
*ORH: Opening Range High
*ORL: Opening Range Low
Other Setups in Play:
GBPAUD Outside Reversal Favors Longs Scalps- 1.8440 Resistance
Scalping the AUDUSD Opening Range- Longs Favored Above 8660
EURUSD October Opening Range Setup- 1.27 Key Resistance
EURCAD Shorts at Risk Ahead of ECB- Key Support 1.4053
Scalping the AUDCHF Reversal- 8360 Resistance in Focus
Scalping the NZDJPYBreakdown
—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
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Source: Daily fx