Talking Points:
British Pound May Fall as Soft Inflation Data Weighs on BOE Rate Hike Bets
Aussie, NZ Dollars Outperform on Ebbing HK-Linked China Instability Fears
PlaceEconomic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App
September’s UK CPI figures headline the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to slow to 1.4 percent, marking a five-year low. UK price-growth readings have tended to underperform relative to consensus forecasts over recent months (according to data from Citigroup), hinting the realized result may prove softer still. Such an outcome is likely to weigh on the British Pound amid ebbing BOE rate hike bets.
With that in mind, leading survey data offers a mixed perspective. While price pressures in the manufacturing sector looked anemic in September, implied service-sector inflation registered at a four-month high over the same period. Services account for close to 80 percent of the overall economy, so a pickup in price growth there may carry significant implications for nationwide figures and deliver an upside surprise on the CPI print. Needless to say, Sterling is likely to find support in this scenario.
The Australian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.6 and 0.3 percent respectively against their leading counterparts. The two currencies tracked gains in China’s Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index equity benchmarks. The moves came amid reports that police were clearing protesters’ barricades in Hong Kong, pointing to ebbing instability risk in Australia and New Zealand’s largest export market.
New to FX? START HERE!
Asia Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
22:30
AUD
ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf
113.8
–
112.6
23:01
GBP
BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (SEP)
-2.1%
1.0%
1.3%
23:50
JPY
Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (SEP)
2.5%
2.4%
2.5%
23:50
JPY
Japan Money Stock M2 (YoY) (SEP)
3.0%
2.9%
3.0%
23:50
JPY
Domestic CGPI (MoM) (SEP)
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.2%
23:50
JPY
Domestic CGPI (YoY) (SEP)
3.5%
3.6%
3.9%
0:30
AUD
NAB Business Confidence (SEP)
5
–
7
0:30
AUD
NAB Business Conditions (SEP)
1
–
3
2:00
NZD
Non Resident Bond Holdings (SEP)
65.9%
–
66.9%
European Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP
PREV
IMPACT
7:15
CHF
Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (SEP)
–
-1.2%
Low
7:15
CHF
Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (SEP)
–
-0.2%
Low
8:30
GBP
PPI Input n.s.a. (MoM) (SEP)
-0.5%
-0.6%
Low
8:30
GBP
PPI Input n.s.a. (YoY) (SEP)
-6.7%
-7.2%
Low
8:30
GBP
PPI Output n.s.a. (MoM) (SEP)
-0.1%
-0.1%
Medium
8:30
GBP
PPI Output n.s.a. (YoY) (SEP)
-0.3%
-0.3%
Medium
8:30
GBP
PPI Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) (SEP)
0.0%
0.1%
Low
8:30
GBP
PPI Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (SEP)
0.9%
0.9%
Low
8:30
GBP
CPI (MoM) (SEP)
0.2%
0.4%
High
8:30
GBP
CPI (YoY) (SEP)
1.4%
1.5%
High
8:30
GBP
Core CPI (YoY) (SEP)
1.8%
1.9%
High
8:30
GBP
RPI (MoM) (SEP)
0.3%
0.4%
Low
8:30
GBP
RPI (YoY) (SEP)
2.3%
2.4%
Low
8:30
GBP
RPI Ex Mort Int. Payments (YoY) (SEP)
2.4%
2.5%
Low
8:30
GBP
ONS House Prices (YoY) (SEP)
–
11.7%
Low
8:30
EUR
Italian General Government Debt (AUG)
–
2168.6B
Low
9:00
EUR
German ZEW Survey (Econ Sentiment) (OCT)
0.0
6.9
Medium
9:00
EUR
German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (OCT)
15.0
25.4
Medium
9:00
EUR
Eurozone ZEW Survey (Econ Sentiment) (OCT)
–
14.2
Medium
9:00
EUR
Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (SEP)
-1.6%
1.0%
Low
9:00
EUR
Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) (SEP)
-0.9%
2.2%
Low
Critical Levels
CCY
Supp 3
Supp 2
Supp 1
Pivot Point
Res 1
Res 2
Res 3
EURUSD
1.2429
1.2570
1.2661
1.2711
1.2802
1.2852
1.2993
GBPUSD
1.5936
1.6012
1.6048
1.6088
1.6124
1.6164
1.6240
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
To receive Ilya’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE
Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.
Source: Daily fx
