Talking Points:
Dollar and S&P 500 Have a Stake in September NFPs
Euro Traders Receive Little Relief from ECB
Yen Crosses Look to Nikkei 225, S&P 500 for Guidance
Dollar and S&P 500 Have a Stake in September NFPs
The US Dollar slipped for a second consecutive day this past session as capital markets stabilized and traders prepared for Friday’s NFPs. We haven’t seen a three-day Dow Jones FXCM Dollar (ticker = USDollar) decline since July 9 – the last stage of congestion before the currency began its current, three-month climb. Yet, if there were a specific piece of event risk that could be expected to knock the air out of such a robust move, it would be the labor data suite. While a recent slide in speculative confidence these past few weeks has contributed to the greenback’s buoyancy, its primary motivator has been interest rate speculation. Though the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike is not likely due until the second half of 2015, the steady march towards tightening draws marked contrast to its major counterparts (ECB, BoJ, PBoC). Yet how much progress does a distant tightening policy afford? What if that time frame is pushed back?
Considering the four-year high the Dollar is currently entertaining, the bar is set very high for rate expectations and its premium has ballooned. In other words, the risk of volatility is greater for the currency should this data disappoint and deflate rate hopes. Much of the initial volatility will be prompted by the release of the NFPs themselves (consensus of a 215,000 – net increase), but it is the ‘qualitative’ figures that the Fed is following for policy guidance. That means the unemployment rate (forecast 6.1 percent), participation rate (62.8 percent) and earnings growth (2.2 percent) may ultimately command trend. That said, while we watch the Dollar’s direct reaction to the data run, don’t forget the currency’s other function as safe haven. If a weak data print finally causes a US equity collapse, the greenback will find a bid.
Euro Traders Receive Little Relief from ECB
Following in the footsteps of the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank stepped up to the stimulus plate. But, rather than mimic its contemporaries by announcing a large and transparent program; the ECB opted for ambiguity. Technically, the President Mario Draghi announced the group’s intention to adopt an asset purchase program at the September 4 meeting. However, the particulars were put off until after this month’s meeting. Details constituted a confirmation that the bank will begin buying covered bonds and asset-backed securities later this month. Beyond that, there was no clear mention as to the ultimate size of the effort beyond suggesting they may fall short of the previously stated goal to drive the balance sheet back up to early 2012 levels. The Euro was perplexed, but capital markets did not take it well.
Yen Crosses Look to Nikkei 225, S&P 500 for Guidance
A third daily decline for the Nikkei 225 – and the biggest in two months – would ensure that traders received the message on the index’s bearish reversal from multi-year highs. Sharing a 0.72, rolling 20-day correlation (a strong positive relationship); the sharp drop for the stock barometer translated into another 0.4 percent slip for USDJPY. Yen crosses are exceptionally dependent on the complacency that equity markets facilitate. The carry that these carry trades offer is sparse and the government is starting to lament the weakness of its currency (a total 180 from two years ago). If true risk aversion were to set in, these pairs will quickly be deemed ‘expensive’ and sell off.
British Pound Finds Rate Speculation Equilibrium
Having initially overshot its reasonable path, the rate forecast for the Bank of England seems to have found balance after bleeding off around two-and-a-half months worth of excess premium. This is not a recipe for a stable Pound however. Instead it increases the sensitivity to data prints going forward. Rather than having a bias run roughshod over important indicators, each release will be evaluated for its contribution to the forecast. Next week, we have plenty of growth-centric data. We also have a BoE decision, but the group will likely remain mum.
Australian Dollar Faces Volatility and Key Fundamental Trends Next Week
The docket for the Australian dollar is looking particularly ominous – or opportunistic depending on your views on volatility. Two particular updates stand out above the others next week: the RBA rate decision and September jobs data. The policy event is expected to pass without change, but the market has been particularly sensitive to tone – as this is a wayward carry currency. The job report is pure volatility.
Emerging Market Investors Await Fed’s Impetus
Further moderation for the USDollar and a hold by the S&P 500 reflected technical and fundamental relief for the Emerging Markets…but they haven’t turned to tide. With the greenback’s retreat, the pricing unit offered an indirect boost to the riskier FX grouping. Despite this, both the Russian Ruble and Chinese Renminbi were little moved, while the Brazilian Real dropped another 0.6 percent. Meanwhile, the MSCI EM ETF was little moved from its fresh 6-month lows. The upcoming US employment data carries great sway over this market segment. Capital chasing the higher yields to be found in these riskier economies depends upon the fragile stability borne from Fed stimulus.
Gold Unmoved by ECB Effort, Risk Rebound
It was an opportunity squandered. Gold has not been able to tap its fundamental role as a last resort safe haven nor its alternative store of wealth function recently, and the appetite for yield and dollars has slowly weighed the metal down in the interim. This past session, traders had their best chance to revive once of these major outlets with the ECB announcing its stimulus effort and US equity indexes reaching critical levels. However, the central bank’s vagueness and another last-minute stay for risk trends meant that neither fuse was lit. The upcoming US jobs report offers a second round, but the impact shouldn’t be considered a direct catalyst. Rather, themetal is more likely to take its cue from USD.
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ECONOMIC DATA
GMT
Currency
Release
Survey
Previous
Comments
23:30
AUD
AiG Performance of Service Index (SEP)
49.4
Has been declining this year. Might pressure the RBA to continue to keep monetary policy loose
1:00
AUD
HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (AUG)
-5.70%
It has been declining this year. May make the RBA make monetary policy loose.
1:00
CNY
Non-manufacturing PMI (SEP)
54.4
Has remained above fifty this year. Measure important to China’s Gov. as they want to make the economy a more service based economy
1:35
JPY
Markit/JMMA Japan Composite PMI (SEP)
50.8
The service PMI has recently been below fifty. The Composite PMI has remained above fifty this year
1:35
JPY
Markit Japan Services PMI (SEP)
49.9
7:45
EUR
Markit/ADACI Italy Services PMI (SEP)
49.6
49.8
These are all revisions of the previous PMI figures that came out.
7:45
EUR
Markit/ADACI Italy Composite PMI (SEP)
49.5
49.9
7:50
EUR
Markit France Services PMI (SEP F)
49.4
49.4
7:50
EUR
Markit France Composite PMI(SEP F)
49.1
49.1
7:55
EUR
Markit Germany Services PMI(SEP F)
55.4
55.4
7:55
EUR
Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI(SEP F)
54
54
8:00
EUR
Markit Eurozone Services PMI(SEP F)
52.8
52.8
8:00
EUR
Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (SEP F)
52.3
52.3
8:30
GBP
Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI (SEP)
58.2
59.3
These measures have remained above fifty this year. If measures indicate a stronger economy, it would put pressure on the BOE to tighten policy
8:30
GBP
Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI (SEP)
59
60.5
8:30
GBP
Official Reserves (Changes) (SEP)
A volatile measure.
9:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (AUG)
0.10%
-0.40%
Retail sales (YoY) have been increasing at positive levels despite the anemic economic situation in the Eurozone
9:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY)(AUG)
0.70%
0.80%
12:30
CAD
International Merchandise Trade (Canadian dollar)(AUG)
1.60B
2.58B
Has been rising this year.
12:30
USD
Trade Balance (AUG) (SEP)
-$40.7B
-$40.5B
Smaller trade deficit would subtract less than GDP.
12:30
USD
Change in Non-farm Payrolls (SEP)
215K
142K
The Federal reserve has monetary policy hinged on the state of the labor market. If the labor market has considerable slack, monetary policy will remain loose and the Fed would postpone rate increases.
12:30
USD
Unemployment Rate (SEP)
6.10%
6.10%
12:30
USD
Labor Force Participation Rate (SEP)
62.80%
12:30
USD
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (SEP)
2.20%
2.10%
13:45
USD
Markit US Services PMI (SEP F)
58.5
58.5
Revisions of last PMI figures
13:45
USD
Markit US Composite PMI (SEP F)
58.8
14:00
USD
ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (SEP)
58.5
59.6
Has been above fifty. Might signal a stronger economy
GMT
Currency
Upcoming Events & Speeches
0:00
USD
Fed’s Bullard to Speak On Economy in Tupelo, Mississippi
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
To see updated SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS for the Majors, visit Technical Analysis Portal
To see updated PIVOT POINT LEVELS for the Majors and Crosses, visit our Pivot Point Table
CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMT
SCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT
Currency
USD/MXN
USD/TRY
USD/ZAR
USD/HKD
USD/SGD
Currency
USD/SEK
USD/DKK
USD/NOK
Resist 2
14.0100
2.3800
12.7000
7.8165
1.3650
Resist 2
7.5800
5.8950
6.7400
Resist 1
13.5800
2.3000
11.8750
7.8075
1.3250
Resist 1
7.3285
5.8475
6.5135
Spot
13.3930
2.2618
11.2060
7.7538
1.2697
Spot
7.2098
5.8372
6.3980
Support 1
13.0300
2.0700
10.2500
7.7490
1.2000
Support 1
6.7750
5.3350
6.3145
Support 2
12.8350
1.7500
9.3700
7.7450
1.1800
Support 2
6.0800
5.2715
6.1300
INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT
CCY
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
EUR/JPY
Gold
Res 3
1.2850
1.6421
109.56
0.9547
1.1181
0.8873
0.8008
139.63
1245.51
Res 2
1.2825
1.6394
109.33
0.9526
1.1159
0.8851
0.7987
139.35
1239.83
Res 1
1.2801
1.6367
109.10
0.9506
1.1137
0.8830
0.7966
139.08
1234.16
Spot
1.2752
1.6314
108.64
0.9466
1.1093
0.8786
0.7925
138.53
1222.81
Supp 1
1.2703
1.6261
108.18
0.9426
1.1049
0.8742
0.7884
137.98
1211.46
Supp 2
1.2679
1.6234
107.95
0.9406
1.1027
0.8721
0.7863
137.71
1205.79
Supp 3
1.2654
1.6207
107.72
0.9385
1.1005
0.8699
0.7842
137.43
1200.11
v
— Written by: John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact John, email jkicklighter@dailyfx.com. Follow me on twitter at http://www.twitter.com/JohnKicklighter
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