Talking Points:

Dollar and Dow Ready for Fed and 1Q Growth Update
Euro More Sensitive to Inflation Update than Growth Data
Yen Crosses: Is There Still Confusion Over BoJ’s Intentions?

Dollar and Dow Ready for Fed and 1Q Growth Update
The dollar and financial markets were less worried about forging a major trend this past session and far more interested in preparing for the upcoming session’s major event risk. There is plenty of top-tier calendar fodder, but the FOMC rate decision and US 1Q GDP statistics stand out over the rest. This combination of releases has the scope to not only reinvigorate US interest rate speculation – sidelined since the liquidity drain – they could actually change the course on broader risk trends given the proper outcomes. The impact of this wave depends on the market’s susceptibility and the actual outcomes. At best, we know there is a reasonable probability of volatility and a lower level of certainty that it will encourage a dollar advance. However, the market’s performance heading into the release is near certain: retracements and consolidation in preparation of the release.

In establishing which of the two major US events will prove more market-moving, timing is of critical importance. The growth report is due at 12:30 GMT while the central bank will release its announce its verdict and statement at 18:00 GMT. Both of these items have enough pull that traders will hesitate to place large trades on the earlier release on anything but a substantial deviation from consensus for fear of a Fed outcome that could contradict the move. That is not to mean that the first quarter’s GDP release is not important. However, its full impact may not be realized until after the policy meeting passes. If the central bank decree aligns with the economic data – whether on risk trend or rate forecasts – it could amplify the ultimate move and charge a true trend. If they conflict, the resulting move will be muted somewhat.

Preparing for the headline deluge and speculative confusion, there is a clear consensus for the Fed meeting. The group has repeatedly insisted the Taper is status quo and a change to rates is not even under consideration. What dollar traders care about is any changes in tone in the statement that clarifies the time frame for the first rate hike or – less likely – raises the possibility of a pause on the Taper. Even a small shift in timing for the Fed’s first tightening would leverage a serious response from the greenback. As for the GDP release, this may alter rate probabilities, but it could prove far more effective in generating a risk trend spark.

Watch both the US GDP release and FOMC rate decision live in the DailyFX Live Trading Room. Sign up for email reminders for the live events.

Euro More Sensitive to Inflation Update than Growth Data
While much of the market’s focus will be turned on the US docket, Euro traders should keep close tabs on native event risk due today. The split docket can be split between economic health updates and inflation figures. In the former category, Spain’s first reading of 1Q GDP, German unemployment and Italy labor data are known market-movers (in descending order of historical impact). While these indicators are good headline material, their impact will be quelled by expectations for the inflation measures. A broad range of price measures are due out of the Euro-area, but it is the Eurozone CPI reading for April that will catch the ECB’s eye and therefore traders’ interest. Much of the threat of a rate cut or alternative easing method hangs on the risk of persistently weak inflation. An expected rebound in the core and headline CPI figure could ease that pressure. Yet, if EURUSD rallies towards 1.4000 on the back of the move, policy officials will likely step up their threats.

Yen Crosses: Is There Still Confusion Over BoJ’s Intentions?
The Bank of Japan held its monetary policy bearings (a target of an annual ¥ 60-70 trillion pace of growth in the money supply) this morning. Given the yen crosses meandering in recent months, some may wonder if there is confusion over the central bank’s intentions for more stimulus. The BoJ has voiced a consistent and somewhat definitive view that more easing would not be needed as inflation is moving towards target and growth will not be permanently stymied by the tax hike. So are USDJPY and crew not toppling? Risk trends is still holding carry stable.

British Pound Unable to Break Despite Heavy Hitting GDP Release
With pairs like GBPUSD and GBPJPY looking at inevitable breakouts in price action alone, the UK 1Q GDP release was a gimme for sparking a bigger sterling move. And yet, the data failed to bear fruit. With the market focusing on anything that can even modestly change the outlook for interest rate forecasts in the UK, the data released in the dead zone. The 0.8 percent growth for the quarter was an acceleration but it fell short of consensus and four-year highs. Looking at swaps, rate speculation is due a breakout as well. Expect this tension to resolve very soon.

New Zealand Yield Collapse Cools, Kiwi’s Retreat Eases
More than actual rate hikes, the New Zealand dollar is depending on forecasts for future increases. The recent retreat in those projections has kept the kiwi from moving higher and has even pulled NZDUSD back to threaten reversal. Looking to the market, 10-year New Zealand yields have slowed their decent, but they are still pressing 8-month lows this morning. If the yield breaks 4.4 percent, AUDNZD may break 1.0900.

Chinese Yuan Slides to a New 18-Month Low as PBoC Says Let Some Assets Fail
Both the onshore (CNY) and offshore (CNH) Chinese currency have dropped this morning. Against the greenback, the Renminbi (also referred generally as the Yuan) hit its lowest level since October 2012. This puts the market well on pace for a sizable third consecutive monthly decline. Some say this is a concerted PBoC effort to push the currency down, but capital outflow itself is more than enough.

Emerging Markets Forge Another Rally Pre-Fed
Adjustment in anticipation of the dense round of event risk and FOMC release isn’t just a consideration for the dollar. The MSCI Emerging Market ETF rose 1.0 percent Tuesday and the FX grouping was mixed – though volatile. Though the withdrawal of cheap US funds is particularly important for this group, the Ukraine 1Q GDP release due today is worthy of market participants’ attention given its impact on global markets.

Gold Interest Rising in Leveraged Interest First
Technically, gold fell for the a second straight session Tuesday; but the 0.1 percent slip was modest enough to speak more to inaction than commitment bearishness. The cumulative influence of global growth readings and monetary policy updates is important for this alternative asset. Meanwhile, traders should keep tabs on possible early swells in speculative appetite. Options interest seems to be the first to take.**Bring the economic calendar to your charts with the DailyFX News App.

ECONOMIC DATA

GMT

Ccy

Release

Survey

Comments

JPY

Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision

0.10%

No changes expected. It is likely that the BoJ is waiting on more data to see how the tax hike impacted the economy.

JPY

Bank of Japan 2014 Monetary Base Target

¥270T

5:00

JPY

Housing Starts (YoY) (MAR)

-2.9%

1.0%

Housing Starts in Japan have been on a sharp decline year-to-date and vehicle production as come off after hitting highs not seen since 2012 back in January.