Talking Points:
British Pound Sinks as Scottish Independence Poll Sets Off Capital Flight
Swiss Franc May Decline if August Inflation Data Falls Short of Forecasts
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The British Pound tumbled against all of its major counterparts to start the trading week, losing as much as 0.9 percent on average. The move reflected capital flight amid uncertainty linked to the outcome of next week’s Scottish Independence referendum. A YouGov/Sunday Times poll published over the weekend showed those intending to vote in favor of seceding from the UK outnumbered those favoring the status quo for the first time, albeit by a narrow margin (47% for independence, 45% against, 7% undecided).
Looking ahead, a quiet economic in European trading hours offers little by way of market-moving event risk. Augusts’ Swiss CPI figures may draw attention however as persistent Euro weakness pushes EURCHF toward the SNB’s target floor of 1.20. The benchmark year-on-year inflation rate is expected to print flat, unchanged from the prior month. Leading survey data hints at a sharp slowdown in price growth however, opening the door for a downside surprise. That may fuel speculation that the SNB will need to expand stimulus, weighing on the Franc. We remain long USDCHF.
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Asia Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
22:45
NZD
Mfg Activity Volume (QoQ) (2Q)
-0.7%
–
0.5%
22:45
NZD
Manufacturing Activity (2Q)
-1.9%
–
0.6%
23:50
JPY
Current Account Total (¥)
416.7B
444.2B
-399.1B
23:50
JPY
Adjusted Current Account Total (¥)
99.3B
180.1B
125.6B
23:50
JPY
Trade Balance – BOP Basis (¥)
-828.1B
-725.9B
-537.1B
23:50
JPY
GDP (QoQ) (2Q F)
-1.8%
-1.8%
-1.7%
23:50
JPY
GDP Annualized (2Q F)
-7.1%
-7.0%
-6.8%
23:50
JPY
Nominal GDP (QoQ) (2Q F)
-0.2%
-0.1%
-0.1%
23:50
JPY
GDP Deflator (YoY) (2Q F)
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
23:50
JPY
GDP Consumer Spending (QoQ) (2Q F)
-5.3%
-5.0%
-5.2%
23:50
JPY
GDP Business Spending (QoQ) (2Q F)
-5.1%
-3.4%
-2.5%
23:50
JPY
Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (AUG)
2.3%
–
2.2%
23:50
JPY
Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (AUG)
2.3%
–
2.3%
1:30
AUD
ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (AUG)
1.8%
–
0.5%
2:00
CNY
Exports (YoY) (AUG)
9.4%
9.0%
14.5%
2:00
CNY
Imports (YoY) (AUG)
-2.4%
3.0%
-1.6%
2:00
CNY
Trade Balance (AUG)
$49.83B
$40.00B
$47.30B
4:30
JPY
Bankruptcies (YoY) (AUG)
-11.23%
–
-13.95%
5:00
JPY
Eco Watchers Survey: Current (AUG)
47.4
51.0
51.3
5:00
JPY
Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (AUG)
50.4
–
51.5
European Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP/ACT
PREV
IMPACT
5:45
CHF
Unemployment Rate (AUG)
3.0% (A)
2.9%
Medium
5:45
CHF
Unemployment Rate s.a. (AUG)
3.2% (A)
3.2%
Medium
6:00
EUR
German Labor Costs (YoY) (2Q)
1.7% (A)
0.5%
Low
6:00
EUR
German Labor Costs (QoQ) (2Q)
0.7% (A)
-0.1%
Low
6:00
EUR
German Trade Balance (€) (JUL)
23.4B (A)
16.6B
Medium
6:00
EUR
German Current Account (€)(JUL)
21.7B (A)
17.2B
Low
6:00
EUR
German Imports s.a. (MoM) (JUL)
-1.8% (A)
4.5%
Low
6:00
EUR
German Exports s.a. (MoM) (JUL)
4.7% (A)
0.9%
Low
7:00
EUR
Halifax House Prices (MoM) (AUG)
0.3%
1.4%
Low
7:00
EUR
Halifax House Prices (3M/Y) (AUG)
10.0%
10.2%
Low
7:15
CHF
Consumer Price Index (MoM) (AUG)
-0.1%
-0.4%
Medium
7:15
CHF
Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG)
0.0%
0.0%
Medium
7:15
CHF
CPI – EU Harmonized (MoM) (AUG)
–
0.0%
Low
7:15
CHF
CPI – EU Harmonized (YoY) (AUG)
–
-0.1%
Low
7:15
CHF
Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (JUL)
–
3.4%
Medium
8:30
GBP
Lloyds Employment Confidence (AUG)
–
6
Low
8:30
EUR
Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence (SEP)
1.4
2.7
Low
Critical Levels
CCY
Supp 3
Supp 2
Supp 1
Pivot Point
Res 1
Res 2
Res 3
EURUSD
1.2822
1.2888
1.2919
1.2954
1.2985
1.3020
1.3086
GBPUSD
1.6203
1.6260
1.6293
1.6317
1.6350
1.6374
1.6431
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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