Talking Points
EURCAD targets key resistance range 1.4444/57
Scalp bias constructive above 1.4330- bullish invalidation
Event risk on tap this week
EUR/CAD Daily Chart
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
EURCAD testing key resistance confluence 1.4444/57- bearish invalidation
Breach targets resistance objectives at 1.4613 & 1.4724/33
Interim support 1.4363/83, ~Former Channel Resistance- bullish invalidation
Key support still 1.4012/53
Daily RSI trigger breaks / highest momentum read since March- constructive
RSI 60-breach would be bullish
Event Risk Ahead: Canadian Retail Sales & Bank of Canada Rate Decision on Wednesday, Eurozone PMI on Thursday
EUR/CAD 30min Chart
Notes: On October 1st we noted that the EURCAD was coming into key support at the 1.4053 support level with our topside bias in-play while above that key region. The pair subsequently rallied through the September opening range before finding resistance at our final topside objective at 1.4444 last week. The focus remains on this key resistance range which we will now extend into 1.4457 to respect the 61.8% retracement of the August decline. A breach of this region is needed to maintain our topside scalp bias with such a scenario eyeing subsequent resistance objectives and completing what looks to be a five wave advance off the monthly low.
Bottom line: we’ll favor buying dips while above Friday’s low (1.4425/30) with a breach through o1.4444/58 (close basis) offering further validation for our near-term directional bias. Caution is warranted ahead of the Bank of Canada interest rate decision on Wednesday with the event likely to fuel added volatility in CAD crosses. Follow the progress of trade setups like these and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Key Threshold Grid
Entry/Exit Targets
Timeframe
Level
Technical Relevance
Resistance Target 1
Daily / 30min
1.4444/57
July Close Low / 100DMA / 61.8% Retrace
Bearish Invalidation
30min
1.4500
October High
Break Target 1
Daily / 30min
1.4562
76.4% Retracement / R2 Monthly Pivot
Break Target 2
Daily / 30min
1.4613
38.2% Retracement
Break Target 3
Daily / 30min
1.4650
88.6% Retracement / July
Break Target 4
30min
1.4675
Soft Resistance / Pivot
Break Target 5
30min
1.4722/32
August High / 100% Extension
Support Target 1
30min
1.4417
July Low / Soft Support
Support Target 2
Daily / 30min
1.4363/83
1.618% Ext / 23.6% Retrace / 2011 & Sept High
Support Target 3
30min
1.4330
Soft Support / Pivot
Bullish Invalidation
Daily / 30min
1.4282/87
50DMA / 38.2% Retrace / ~Former TL Resistance
Break Target 1
Daily / 30min
1.4245
Soft Support / Pivot
Break Target 2
Daily / 30min
1.4182
23.6% Retracement / Central Monthly Pivot
Break Target 3
Daily
1.4126
August 2013 High / Soft Support
Break Target 4
Daily
1.4012/53
2014 Close Low / 2014 Stretch Low
Average True Range
Daily (20)
106
Profit Targets 25-27pips
*ORH: Opening Range High
*ORL: Opening Range Low
Other Setups in Play:
EURJPY Key Outside Reversal Shifts Near-term Focus Higher
NZDUSD Scalps Target Key Resistance at 0.8000
EURAUD Scalps Target 1.46- Breakout Levels Well Defined
GBPAUD Outside Reversal Favors Longs Scalps- 1.8440 Resistance
Scalping the AUDUSD Opening Range- Longs Favored Above 8660
EURUSD October Opening Range Setup- 1.27 Key Resistance
EURCAD Shorts at Risk Ahead of ECB- Key Support 1.4053
—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
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Source: Daily fx