Talking Points:
Aussie Dollar Edges Higher on Modestly Better Than Expected Chinese GDP
US Dollar, Yen May Rise if Upbeat Home Sales Data Fuels Fed Rates Outlook
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The Australian Dollar narrowly outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.3 percent on average against its leading counterparts, following a narrowly better-than-expected Chinese GDP report. Output grew at a year-on-year rate of 7.3 percent compared with economists’ expectations of 7.2 percent. The outcome still amounted to the lowest reading since the post-crisis trough in the first quarter of 2009, painting a picture that is hardly encouraging as markets fret about slowing global performance.
A quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see traders looking ahead to US news-flow, where September’s Existing Home Sales data is in focus. A print at 5.10 million transactions is expected, marking a 1 percent increase from the prior month. US data outcomes have cautiously improved relative to expectations in recent weeks, which may suggest analysts are underestimating the vigor of the North American behemoth and opening the door for an upside surprise.
Such an outcome may help rebuild Fed rate hike expectations, boosting the US Dollar. Renewed bets on the relatively sooner onset of Fed tightening against a backdrop of swelling global slowdown fears may likewise undermine risk appetite amid fears that US growth will be insufficient to offset downturns in the Eurozone and China. That might put risk-geared currencies under pressure while boosting safety-linked alternatives like the Japanese Yen.
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Asia Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
21:45
NZD
Net Migration s.a. (SEP)
4670
–
4720
22:30
AUD
ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf
111.6
–
113.8
0:30
AUD
RBA Releases Minutes from Oct. Meeting
–
–
–
2:00
CNY
GDP SA (QoQ) (3Q)
1.9%
1.8%
2.0%
2:00
CNY
GDP (YoY) (3Q)
7.3%
7.2%
7.5%
2:00
CNY
GDP YTD (YoY) (3Q)
7.4%
7.4%
7.4%
2:00
CNY
Industrial Production (YoY) (SEP)
8.0%
7.5%
6.9%
2:00
CNY
Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (SEP)
8.5%
8.4%
8.5%
2:00
CNY
Retail Sales (YoY) (SEP)
11.6%
11.7%
11.9%
2:00
CNY
Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (SEP)
12.0%
12.1%
12.1%
2:00
CNY
Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD (YoY) (SEP)
16.1%
16.3%
16.5%
2:00
NZD
Credit Card Spending (MoM) (SEP)
0.2%
–
0.7%
2:00
NZD
Credit Card Spending (YoY) (SEP)
4.4%
–
4.2%
4:30
JPY
All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (AUG)
-0.4%
-0.2%
5:00
JPY
Supermarket Sales (YoY) (SEP)
–
-0.1%
European Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP
PREV
IMPACT
6:00
CHF
Trade Balance (SFr) (SEP)
2.49B
1.33B
Medium
6:00
CHF
Exports (MoM) (SEP)
–
-0.7%
Low
6:00
CHF
Imports (MoM) (SEP)
–
6.4%
Low
7:00
CHF
Money Supply M3 (YoY) (SEP)
–
3.4%
Low
8:30
GBP
Public Sector Net Borrowing (£) (SEP)
9.4B
10.9B
Low
8:30
GBP
Public Finances (PSNCR) (£) (SEP)
–
1.6B
Low
8:30
GBP
PSNB ex Banking Groups (SEP)
10.1B
11.6B
Low
8:30
GBP
Central Government NCR (SEP)
–
3.1B
Low
9:00
EUR
Eurozone Gov’t Debt/GDP Ratio (2013)
–
92.6%
Low
Critical Levels
CCY
Supp 3
Supp 2
Supp 1
Pivot Point
Res 1
Res 2
Res 3
EURUSD
1.2611
1.2697
1.2749
1.2783
1.2835
1.2869
1.2955
GBPUSD
1.5943
1.6042
1.6104
1.6141
1.6203
1.6240
1.6339
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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Source: Daily fx