Talking Points:
Russian Trade Balance Data May Rekindle Risk Aversion into the Week-End
Yen Sold as Asian Stocks Rise on Upbeat US Data, NZ Dollar Corrects Lower
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Emerging-market jitters may renew pressure on risky assets in the final hours of the trading week. Russian Trade Balance figures are expected to show the smallest surplus in over two years at $11.6 billion. The announcement threatens to shine the spotlight on an increasingly precarious situation that looks dangerously likely to result in either an acute budget crisis or the introduction of capital controls.
Needless to say, neither alternative bodes well for sentiment. With that in mind, a data set that fuels fears of Russia-driven market dislocation may renew the push to liquidate risk-geared positions set off earlier in the week. That is likely to yield another leg upward in the Japanese Yen and weigh on higher-yielding currencies such as the Australian Dollar.
Currency markets were little-changed in overnight trade, with most of the majors mired in consolidation mode. The Yen narrowly underperformed as stocks advanced, sapping haven demand. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index added 0.7 percent following upbeat US Retail Sales data published earlier in the day. The US is a leading export market for Asian firms and a pickup in retail activity may have been interpreted as supportive of cross-border demand prospects. The New Zealand Dollar also declined as prices continued to digest the rally after the RBNZ policy announcement.
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Asia Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
21:30
NZD
BusinessNZ Perf of Mfg Index
55.2
–
58.9
0:00
NZD
ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (DEC)
126.5
–
121.8
0:00
NZD
ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (DEC)
3.9%
–
-1.3%
0:30
AUD
Credit Card Balances (A$) (OCT)
49.6B
–
49.4B
0:30
AUD
Credit Card Purchases (A$) (OCT)
24.4B
–
23.9B
2:00
NZD
Non Resident Bond Holdings (NOV)
66.5%
–
64.8%
4:30
JPY
Industrial Production (MoM) (OCT F)
0.4%
–
0.2%
4:30
JPY
Industrial Production (YoY) (OCT F)
-0.8%
–
-1.0%
4:30
JPY
Capacity Utilization (MoM) (OCT)
0.7%
–
3.6%
5:30
CNY
Industrial Production (YoY) (NOV)
7.2%
7.5%
7.7%
5:30
CNY
Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (NOV)
8.3%
8.3%
8.4%
5:30
CNY
Retail Sales (YoY) (NOV)
11.7%
11.5%
11.5%
5:30
CNY
Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (NOV)
12.0%
12.0%
12.0%
5:30
CNY
Fixed Assets Ex Rural (YTD) (YoY) (NOV)
15.8%
15.8%
15.9%
European Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP
PREV
IMPACT
7:00
EUR
German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (NOV)
–
-0.7%
Low
7:00
EUR
German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (NOV)
–
-0.6%
Low
9:30
GBP
Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (NOV)
0.7%
1.8%
Low
9:30
GBP
Construction Output s.a. (YoY) (NOV)
1.3%
3.5%
Low
10:00
EUR
Eurozone Employment (QoQ) (3Q)
–
0.2%
Low
10:00
EUR
Eurozone Employment (YoY) (3Q)
–
0.4%
Low
10:00
EUR
Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (NOV)
0.2%
0.6%
Medium
10:00
EUR
Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) (NOV)
0.7%
0.6%
Medium
10:00
EUR
Eurozone Employment (QoQ)
–
0.2%
Low
11:00
EUR
ECB Announces 3yr LTRO Repayment
–
–
Medium
Critical Levels
CCY
Supp 3
Supp 2
Supp 1
Pivot Point
Res 1
Res 2
Res 3
EURUSD
1.2175
1.2300
1.2356
1.2425
1.2481
1.2550
1.2675
GBPUSD
1.5504
1.5609
1.5671
1.5714
1.5776
1.5819
1.5924
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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