Talking Points:
Aussie Dollar Drops, Yen Gains as Chinese & Greek News Sour Sentiment
S&P 500 Futures Point Lower, Hinting at Continued Risk Aversion Ahead
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The Australian Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 0.6 percent on average against its leading currency counterparts. The move followed a disappointing set of Chinese Trade Balance figures released over the weekend.
The report showed exports unexpectedly fell 3.3 percent year-on-year in January, marking the first decline since March 2014. Imports slid 19.9 percent, amounting to the worst print since May 2009. China is Australia’s top trading partner and signs of sluggish activity there bode ill for the latter country’s growth prospects and reinforce RBA interest rate cut speculation.
The Japanese Yen pushed higher, adding as much as 0.3 percent against the majors. The move tracked a drop on most Asian stock exchanges as signs of slowing momentum in the world’s second-largest economy fueled risk aversion, driving an unwinding of carry trades funded in the perennially low-yielding currency.
Looking ahead, a quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to keep sentiment trends at the forefront. S&P 500 futures are pointing markedly lower, hinting at continued risk aversion in the cards ahead. Comments from newly-minted Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras rejecting his country’s EU/IMF bailout – raising the probability of so-called “Grexit” – may compound investors’ dour mood.
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Asia Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
2:27
CNY
Trade Balance CNY (JAN)(Yuan)
366.90B
–
304.56B
2:27
CNY
Imports (YoY) (JAN)
-19.9%
-3.2%
-2.4%
2:27
CNY
Imports (YoY) CNY (JAN)
-19.7%
–
-2.3%
2:27
CNY
Trade Balance (JAN)
$60.03B
$48.20B
$49.61B
2:27
CNY
Exports (YoY) CNY (JAN)
-3.2%
–
9.9%
2:27
CNY
Exports (YoY) (JAN)
-3.3%
5.8%
9.0%
23:50
JPY
Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (JAN)
2.5%
–
2.6%
23:50
JPY
Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (JAN)
2.6%
2.8%
2.8%
23:50
JPY
Current Account Total (DEC)
¥187.2B
¥355.8B
¥433.0B
23:50
JPY
Adjusted Current Account Total (DEC)
¥976.6B
¥940.8B
¥914.5B
23:50
JPY
Trade Balance – BOP Basis (DEC)
-¥395.6B
-¥472.0B
-¥636.8B
0:30
AUD
ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (JAN)
1.3%
–
1.8%
1:30
JPY
BOJ’s Morimoto Speaks in Chiba
–
–
–
4:30
JPY
Bankruptcies (YoY) (JAN)
-16.55%
–
-8.53%
5:00
JPY
Consumer Confidence Index (JAN)
39.1
39.3
38.8
6:00
JPY
Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (JAN)
45.8
46.7
6:00
JPY
Eco Watchers Survey: Current (JAN)
45.8
45.2
European Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP/ACT
PREV
IMPACT
6:40
GBP
BOE’s Carney Speaks at IIF Event in Istanbul
–
–
Medium
7:00
EUR
German Trade Balance (DEC)
€16.0B
€7.9B
Low
7:00
EUR
German Current Account (DEC)
€20.8B
€18.6B
Low
7:00
EUR
German Exports s.a. (MoM) (DEC)
1.0%
-1.9%
Low
7:00
EUR
German Imports s.a. (MoM) (DEC)
0.2%
1.6%
Low
8:00
CHF
SNB Sight Deposits
–
–
Low
9:30
EUR
Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence (FEB)
3.0
0.9
Low
Critical Levels
CCY
Supp 3
Supp 2
Supp 1
Pivot Point
Res 1
Res 2
Res 3
EURUSD
1.1023
1.1197
1.1256
1.1371
1.1430
1.1545
1.1719
GBPUSD
1.4989
1.5129
1.5186
1.5269
1.5326
1.5409
1.5549
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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