Talking Points:
World Bank & IMF Meetings Create Headline Risk, Fed-Speak May Pass Quietly
Australian, NZ Dollars Rise as Asian Markets Respond to Dovish FOMC Minutes
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A quiet economic data docket through the end of the trading week will keep the spotlight on central bank commentary. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans are scheduled to speak.
Markets have already head from both policymakers in the aftermath of last month’s rate decision. Mr Lockhart has continued to call for “liftoff” this year while Mr Evans has taken a predictably dovish posture, preferring to wait until next year.
Fed officials’ medium-term perspective suggests little has changed in their outlook in just two weeks, meaning traders are unlikely to hear anything so novel as to generate meaningful trend development. That hints at a consolidative tone in the hours ahead.
Sideline commentary from the World Bank and IMF annual meeting in Lima, Peru represents headline risk. The coming together of a large group of the world’s top-tier policymakers and an army of journalists is likely to create ample opportunities for sentiment-shaping news-flow. Needless to say, the centrality of emerging-market growth concerns in recent months makes such a scenario all the more likely.
The Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed in overnight trade as Asian markets on-boarded cues from minutes from September’s FOMC meeting. The moves tracked a drop in front-end US Treasury bond yields, suggesting markets walked away with a dovish interpretation of the release.
The prospect of a longer delay in Fed stimulus withdrawal likewise bolstered risk appetite. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark stock index rose anew after the prior session’s pullback,adding over 1 percent.
Losing Money Trading Forex? This is Probably Why.
Asia Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
21:45
NZD
Card Spending Retail (MoM) (SEP)
0.9%
0.4%
0.5%
21:45
NZD
Card Spending Total (MoM) (SEP)
0.7%
–
0.1%
00:30
AUD
Home Loans (MoM) (AUG)
2.9%
4.7%
-0.3%
00:30
AUD
Investment Lending (AUG)
-0.4%
–
-0.3%
00:30
AUD
Owner-Occupier Loan Value (MoM) (AUG)
6.1%
–
1.7%
European Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP
PREV
IMPACT
08:30
GBP
Construction Output (MoM) (AUG)
1.0%
-1.0%
Low
08:30
GBP
Construction Output (YoY) (AUG)
1.4%
-0.7%
Low
08:30
GBP
Visible Trade Balance (£/Mn) (AUG)
-9925
-11082
Medium
08:30
GBP
Trade Balance Non EU (£/Mn) (AUG)
-3000
-3461
Medium
08:30
GBP
Trade Balance (£) (AUG)
-2150
-3371
Medium
Critical Levels
CCY
Supp 3
Supp 2
Supp 1
Pivot Point
Res 1
Res 2
Res 3
EURUSD
1.1095
1.1187
1.1232
1.1279
1.1324
1.1371
1.1463
GBPUSD
1.5107
1.5217
1.5282
1.5327
1.5392
1.5437
1.5547
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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Source: Daily fx