Talking Points:
US Dollar falls to seven month lows on new fears
Next debt deal crisis may be waiting around the corner
A look back at the past week of Forex trading using movements in the US Dollar Index:
US Dollar 1-Hour 17:00 10/13 to 08:00 10/18 EST
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The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index saw a series of small rallies and declines in the days ahead of the announcement of the deal to end the government shutdown and suspend the debt ceiling, but the greenback set a seven month low as additional fears began to take hold of traders after the debt deal crisis was finally resolved.
The week of trading opened on a gap on disappointment that politicians failed to secure a deal over the weekend. The first two days of trading passed without much event, and then the US Dollar fell to a three day low on news that Fitch placed US government debt on watch negative, suggesting that the ratings agency might downgrade the AAA credit rating.
Finally, the US Dollar rallied in the first half of the NY session on Wednesdays, as reports emerged of Senators achieving a debt deal. However, the actual announcement of the deal failed to further support the US Dollar, and traders sold the greenback, possibly because they were taking profit on the confirmation of the expected news.
Then, the Dollar Index continued to decline as additional fears began to take hold of US Dollar traders, now that the debt crisis had passed. The deal only suspended the debt ceiling until February, when a similar showdown might occur, a ratings downgrade still looms following the immense effort needed to suspend the debt ceiling, and the Fed’s taper start may be delayed further, as the government shutdown has shaken confidence and left FOMC blind to some of the cancelled government economic releases. The fear of these US Dollar related factors may have been responsible for the disproportionate response to the ratings downgrade of US government debt by the small Chinese ratings agency Dagong.
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Charts created by Benjamin Spier using Marketscope 2.0
— Written by Benjamin Spier, DailyFX Research. Feedback can be sent to bbspier@fxcm.com .
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.
Source: Daily fx
