Wednesday Briefing: Implications of Google’s Venture into Nuclear Power for AI and Global Dynamics | Google

Good morning! If you’re searching for an inkblot test reflecting your perspective on major tech companies’ investments in artificial intelligence, the recent news about Google ordering the construction of at least six small nuclear reactors for technological growth certainly stands out.

From one perspective, this represents a forward-thinking enterprise harnessing its resources to invest in infrastructure that has the potential to positively impact the world. Conversely, it also showcases a corporation operating with insufficient regulation, sidestepping democratic concerns in the intense race for dominion over a groundbreaking innovation that could carry significant risks – ultimately diminishing public input in its evolution.

Google’s notable decision stems from the considerable electricity consumption of the datacenters powering the rapid escalation of generative AI, exceeding what the current grid in the US and other western nations can easily supply. In today’s newsletter, I interview technology journalist Chris Stokel-Walker, author of How AI Ate the World, regarding the surging power demand and the level of trust we can place in big tech. Here are the key stories.

Five Big Stories

1. Welfare| The government has announced a revamp of harsh penalties that led to thousands of pounds of debt for unpaid caregivers after errors related to benefit regulations. This follows a six-month period after a Guardian investigation unveiled that many vulnerable caregivers faced severe overpayments or potential legal actions due to unintentional mistakes.

2. Middle East| The Biden administration has cautioned Israel about potential consequences, including halting weapons transfers, if it fails to allow more humanitarian aid into Gaza promptly. The correspondence indicates that the flow of assistance has decreased by over 50% since promises were made in March to enhance deliveries.

3. ‘Spy Cops’ Scandal| A secret police officer has confessed to spying on Keir Starmer during his time as a radical barrister, as disclosed in a public inquiry. The officer admitted to accessing confidential information regarding Starmer’s legal counsel to two environmental campaigners during the famous McLibel case in the early 90s.

4. Economy| Employers in Britain are expressing concerns that an anticipated increase in national insurance contributions in the upcoming budget could hinder hiring practices and limit salary increases, adversely affecting businesses such as pubs, restaurants, and hotels. Keir Starmer declined to eliminate the possibility of this rise in national insurance during budget discussions yesterday.

5. US Election 2024| Recent federal disclosures reveal that Elon Musk donated approximately $75 million to his pro-Donald Trump spending group over three months, highlighting the billionaire’s pivotal role in bolstering the Republican candidate’s chances in the upcoming US presidential election.

In Depth: Why AI Needs So Much Power – And What Big Tech Will Do to Get It

Although labeled as “small nuclear reactors,” don’t let that mislead you: the 500MW Google is procuring from Kairos Power is sufficient to supply energy to a midsize city. To grasp the magnitude of AI’s demand on the electrical grid, consider this is merely enough to support one datacentre campus geared to meet AI’s burgeoning needs. OpenAI, for instance, is soliciting approval from the White House to construct at least five datacentres, each requiring 5GW of power – tenfold the current figure.

The impetus behind this nuclear energy initiative stems from the enormous energy requirements of the GPUs (graphics processing units) essential for training substantial language models that propel AI advancement. Additionally, handling a ChatGPT query demands nearly ten times the amount of energy needed for a standard Google search.

“GPUs are significantly more advanced and powerful compared to the previous generation’s CPUs (central processing units),” noted Chris Stokel-Walker. “This results in immediate increased demand. Furthermore, we are beginning to see extensive ‘megaclusters’ of GPUs. It’s not just that individual chips are becoming larger and requiring more power; it’s about the race to cluster as many together to enhance their combined power.”

How Much Impact Will AI’s Demand for Power Have?

“Estimating this is challenging as companies are somewhat secretive about their power usage,” Chris remarked. “Nonetheless, there’s a prevailing understanding that energy consumption by datacentres will rise dramatically as AI becomes integrated into all aspects of our lives.”

The surge in demand is already notable: whereas a decade ago, a typical datacentre consumed 10MW of power, that figure has escalated to 100MW today. The largest datacentres can now demand more than 600MW each.

According to the Uptime Institute, based in New York, which has established an industry-standard benchmarking system, AI currently accounts for merely 2% of global datacentre power consumption, which is projected to grow to 10% by next year. “The expansion in power usage isn’t linear,” Chris observed. “Just as we transitioned from bulky transistors in our TVs to energy-efficient flatscreen models, while there have been improvements in efficiency, the overall demand continues to rise — just at a slower pace.”

How Are Tech Companies Addressing Their Power Needs?

They are either constructing their own power sources or compensating others to do so. Given that governments perceive AI control as vital for maintaining global competitiveness, tech companies find themselves in a favorable position during negotiations regarding construction locations and plans.

“Tech companies are emphasizing to global decision-makers that either you align with this trend or risk being left behind,” Chris added.

A recent New York Times article illustrates the practical implications of this stance, noting that during a fundraising initiative, OpenAI’s CEO, Sam Altman, informed Taiwanese semiconductor executives that achieving his vision of establishing 36 semiconductor facilities and additional datacentres would cost around $7 trillion (£5.6 trillion) — representing roughly one-quarter of the total annual economic output of the US. OpenAI has refuted this claim, stating that its goals lie in the range of hundreds of billions of dollars.

Simultaneously, Altman is contemplating establishing these centres in several countries, including the United Arab Emirates. There are concerns in Washington that this move could provide China access to US AI advancements due to interconnections between Chinese and Emirati universities. Altman is also assessing plans for domestic centres in the US.

“This warning serves as both an incentive and a deterrent,” Chris explained. “They’re indicating that if you don’t support this, we’ll seek opportunities elsewhere, which could result in not just the loss of investments, but also a potential national security threat.”

What Is the Potential Impact on Climate?

Major tech companies assert they are diligently increasing their use of renewable energy sources — claiming that AI could eventually serve as a significant tool to mitigate the repercussions of the climate crisis.

While it’s true that tech firms’ investments in renewable energy have been instrumental in their expansion, the assertion that AI will remedy the climate crisis is more theoretical, lacking immediate results. Furthermore, there are allegations suggesting that emissions related to energy consumption by giants like Google, Microsoft, and Meta are considerably more substantial than they publicly acknowledge.

In a piece published last month, Isabel O’Brien detailed that major tech firms utilize renewable energy credits — which may not necessarily correspond with the power used in their datacentres and may not effectively decrease emissions — to downplay their reported emissions figures. This could mean actual emissions might exceed reported amounts by over sevenfold.

What About Nuclear Power?

Google claims its initiative makes it the first company globally to acquire nuclear energy from small nuclear reactors. However, Amazon and Microsoft have already secured agreements with conventional, larger nuclear power facilities in the US this year. Alarmingly, Microsoft’s agreement will revive a nuclear reactor at Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania — the site of the most catastrophic nuclear accident in US history. They are emphasizing its long history of safe operation since the 1979 incident at another reactor onsite — including a rebranding effort.

With projections suggesting datacentres could generate about 2.5 billion tonnes of carbon-dioxide equivalent emissions by 2030, arguments supporting nuclear power use become pertinent. Nevertheless, this remains a highly contentious issue, subject to years of intense public discourse due to associated risks. Regardless of individual stances, it is remarkable that these corporations seem to possess the authority to dictate these decisions unilaterally.

“What stands out here is the implication of how tech firms function as transnational entities that manage to influence national regulations to suit their products,” Chris said.

Conversely, Google contends that its investment in small nuclear reactors could provide a critical boost to a technology that has found it challenging to gain traction. “In the end, some of this knowledge will disseminate,” Chris stated. “They typically roll out technologies in a cautious manner, but it takes time, and the benefits are unevenly spread.”

Can Governments Regulate These Changes?

There are significant challenges associated with regulating technology companies; in the absence of globally enforced standards, nations are poised to offer competitive advantages, as evidenced by Ireland’s appeal as a host for many tech firms due to its favorable tax policies.

That said, regulation doesn’t require worldwide consensus to be effective; for instance, new legislation in California will soon mandate that all private companies with global revenues surpassing $1 billion disclose their carbon footprints. Given the imperative for tech firms to continue operating in California, this could have significant broader implications.

The effects of regulatory efforts and enhanced data collection on AI’s growth are dependent on the willingness of tech firms to cooperate — and if they resist, how willing governments are to enforce compliance. The ongoing debate regarding renewable energy credits exemplifies how even seemingly beneficial initiatives can be fraught with complexity.

Moreover, tech giants hold a crucial card: the intense ambition among governments globally to emerge victorious in the AI landscape. “These companies highlight impressive projected GDP increases and assert that this wave of innovation is coming,” Chris noted. “You can either embrace it or risk being left behind.”

What Else We’ve Been Reading

• After Tommy Robinson‘s new book, Manifesto, quickly ascended to No 1 on Amazon, Zoe Williams reviewed reader comments to gauge reactions to the overtly racist content. Her findings prompted a reflection on society’s responsibility regarding narratives from the far right. Nimo

• Simon Usborne provides insight into the rising trend of veneers and offers a vivid explanation of the consequences when they fail. This certainly raised my eyebrows. Archie

• With the proliferation of sleep-tracking apps and devices estimated to be worth £270 million annually, do these technologies genuinely enhance sleep quality or do they create new issues? Anita Chaudhuri investigates orthosomnia — an unhealthy fixation on achieving perfect sleep. Nimo

• Marina Hyde explores the perplexing question: why does it seem that everything we see online revolves around Strictly Come Dancing? Archie

• Robbie Parker, whose daughter Emilie was among the 20 children killed in the Sandy Hook shooting in 2012, shared his experiences with David Smith regarding his grief and the relentless harassment he faced after becoming a focal point of conspiracy theories promoted by far-right media. Nimo

Sport

Football | Thomas Tuchel has accepted the position of England’s manager, with discussions with the Football Association accelerating on Tuesday. The 51-year-old will become the third foreign manager of the men’s team and the first from Germany. Barney Ronay observes that Tuchel is “an intriguing appointment laden with expectations, but it may prove to be a worthwhile decision.”

Cricket | England women faced an unexpected exit from the T20 World Cup Tuesday evening as the West Indies defeated them by six wickets, chasing their target of 142 runs in just 18 overs — a victory margin substantial enough to elevate them over South Africa based on net run rate.

Football| Brydon Carse took Mohammad Rizwan’s wicket during the morning session of the second test between England and Pakistan, leaving Pakistan at 264-6. The home team had previously reached 302-6 moments earlier. Follow it live here.

The Front Pages

This morning’s Guardian print edition headlines with “Minister pledges to resolve scandal resulting in carers’ debts.” The Daily Mail states “Now PM is embroiled in Swift controversy” – regarding Keir Starmer attending a Taylor Swift concert. The Financial Times mentions “Reeves banking on budget tax increases to mitigate a £40bn deficit.” The Telegraph carries “Reeves’s about-face on NI increase dangers” – with the chancellor previously admitting it would affect workers, asserts the paper. The IFS concurs, as reported by the i: “National Insurance tax hikes on businesses will adversely impact workers, according to Reeves.”

The Daily Mirror introduces Thomas Tuchel as the new “Kaiser chief” of England’s football team. “Labour’s confrontation with obesity” is the theme of the Metro, addressing the proposal of slimming injections to assist individuals off sickness benefits and return to the workforce. “Time is running out … Your assistance is crucial to reform harsh law” – the Daily Express amplifies Esther Rantzen’s campaign for assisted dying legislation. “Sick individuals could end their lives with doctors’ and a judge’s agreement” – reports the Times about MPs discussing the proposed law today.

Today in Focus

How UN Peacekeepers Found Themselves Under Fire from Israel

UN peacekeepers in Lebanon report that Israel has attacked their bases, prompting Israel to instruct them to leave the area. Patrick Wintour provides the details.

Cartoon of the Day | Martin Rowson

The Upside

A piece of good news to remind you that the world isn’t all bad

At the tender age of eight, Adriana Brownlee expressed her aspiration to “become famous for climbing the highest mountain in the world … and be among the youngest girls to achieve this.”

Now, at 23, she has become the youngest woman to scale all 14 of the world’s 8,000-meter-plus peaks. Upon summiting Shishapangma in Tibet last week, she was overwhelmed with emotion, realizing she would join a rare group of fewer than 100 climbers to reach all 14 summits. Brownlee aims to aid others in realizing their mountaineering dreams by fostering a new generation of high-altitude climbing and trekking experiences.

Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, delivered every Sunday

Bored at Work?

To conclude, the Guardian’s puzzles are available to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow!