Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
USDJPY now at Key Support at 97.56 – 97.65 – Scalp bias bullish above
Range represents
– 100% Fib Extension off the July High
– 50% Retrace from the June Low
– 38.2% Fib extension off the yearly high
Break below turns scalp bias bearish- Primary objective range 96.55 – 96.74.
Secondary support ranges 95.37 – 95.53
Longer-term bias bullish above 93.60 – 94.00 support range
Topside Breach above 99.85/90 triggers resumption broader up-trend
Daily RSI rejection of 60-threshold suggests near-term momentum remains heavy
Topside RSI Triggers to put conviction on long bias
Key Events Ahead:BoJ Rate Decision & U.S. weekly jobless claims on Thursday, U.S. Wholesale inventories on Friday
USDJPY Scalp Chart
Scalp Notes: Although the USDJPY is not a favorable scalp ahead of the BoJ interest rate decision, our near-term bias is now in line with our longer-term outlook and remains weighted to the topside above the 97.56 – 97.65 support range. Bottom line: a break below this key support structure risks a deeper correction in the pair with such a scenario eying subsequent support objectives. The intra-day RSI signature has been bearish since the start of the week with last night’s topside trigger offering conviction longs into resistance target 3 at 98.56. Look for the oscillator to reset with subsequent topside triggers above the 50-threshold putting longs into play so long as price remains above the 97.56 support level.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Key Threshold Grid
Entry/Exit Targets
Timeframe
Level
Significance
Resistance Target 1
30min
97.84
88.6% Retracement
Resistance Target 2
30min
98.08
78.6% Retracement
Resistance Target 3
Daily / 30min
98.48 – 98.56
61.8% & 38.2% Retracements / 100 DMA
Bearish Invalidation
Daily / 30min
98.76
50% Retracements
Break Target 1
30min
99.10
Soft Res / Pivot / Weekly High (99.14)
Break Target 2
30min
99.35
61.8% Retracement
Break Target 3
30min
99.83 – 99.95
50, 61.8 & 78.6 Retraces / Aug High / TL Res
Bullish Invalidation
Daily / 30min
97.56- 97.72
38.2% & 100% Fib Exts / 50% Retracement
Break Target 1
30min
97.25
Soft Support / Pivot
Break Target 2
30min
97.00
Big Figure / Soft Support / Pivot
Break Target 3
Daily / 30min
96.56 – 96.73
61.8% Retrace / 1.272 & 50% Fib Exts
Break Target 4
30min
96.12
Soft Support / Pivot
Break Target 5
Daily / 30min
95.37 – 95.53
61.8% & 1.618% Exts / 78.6% Retrace
Break Target 6
Daily
Variable
Trendline Support Dating 4/2/2013
Average True Range
Daily
117
Profit Targets 27-30pips
Daily Scalp Setups in Play- USD, EUR & GBP Scalp Bias at Risk Ahead of FOMC, ECB, BoE, NFP
Reviews today’s Scalp Webinar for further insights and current trade setups
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
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