Talking Points
USDCHF reversal off October lows halts at Fibonacci resistance / 100DMA
Risk of near-term bounce shifts focus lower– Pullbacks to be bought above 9063
Bearish invalidation with break / close above 9252
USDCHF Daily Chart
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
USDCHF reversal off key support range last month still in focus
November opening range Bullish
Support at trendline dating back to October low, 9111
Broader bias constructive above 9062/69- Bullish invalidation
Resistance objectives at 9245/51, 9317, 9352/63
Momentum at July highs- multiple multi-month topside triggers broken- Bullish
Daily RSI warns of correction- support at former TL resistance, 50 level
USDCHF Scalp Chart
Notes: The initial weekly opening range has broken to the downside and while our broader bias remains weighted to the topside against the November low, we look for near-term pullbacks to offer favorable long entries. Last week’s multi-month channel break remains in focus and we will look for signs of basing as we head into the end of the week. Our scalp bias will remain weighted to the topside above 9111 with only a break below 9062 invalidating our broader outlook. A breach above 9252 warrants long exposure with such a scenario eyeing subsequent topside targets.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Key Threshold Grid
Entry/Exit Targets
Timeframe
Level
Significance
Resistance Target 1
30min
9165
23.6% Retracement
Resistance Target 2
30min
9190
Soft Resistance / Pivot
Resistance Target 3
Daily / 30min
9225/30
100-Day Moving Average / Weekly High
Bearish Invalidation
Daily / 30min
9245/51
61.8% Ext / 38.2% Retrace/ Nov High
Break Target 1
Daily / 30min
9280
Sept Gap / Soft Resistance / Pivot
Break Target 2
Daily / 30min
9317
200-Day Moving Average
Break Target 3
30min
9320
Soft Resistance / Pivot
Break Target 4
Daily / 30min
9352/63
100% Ext / 50% Retracement
Support Target 1
30min
9140
Soft Support / Pivot
Support Target 2
Daily / 30min
9111/12
23.6% & 38.2% Retraces / TL Support
Support Target 3
30min
9090
Last Week’s Low / Soft Support
Bullish Invalidation
Daily / 30min
9063/69
50% Retrace / Nov Low / Oct Swing Low
Break Target 1
30min
9045
Soft Support / Pivot
Break Target 2
Daily / 30min
9026
61.8% Retracement
Average True Range
Daily
70
Profit Targets 17-19pips
Other Setups in Play:
EURUSD Scalp Favors Selling Rallies Post ECB- Bearish below 1.3588
USD Scalps Look to Fade Weakness – AUD, NZD, CAD Eye Key Support
AUDUSD Scalp Looks to Sell Rallies- Bearish below 9570
Trade these setups and more alongside the DailyFX research team everyday with DailyFX on Demand
—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
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