Talking Points:
– USD/CAD Stalls Ahead of 1.2800 Resistance as Canada GDP Beats Market Forecast.
– AUD/USD 0.7580 Support Zone Vulnerable to Slowing China Manufacturing.
– USDOLLAR Pares Gains Despite Jump in Consumer Confidence- ADP, ISM Manufacturing in Focus.
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USD/CAD
Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
USD/CAD fails to test the 1.2800 resistance zone as Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report beats market expectations; key support stands around 1.2390 (161.8% retracement) to 1.2420 (161.8% expansion).
May continue to face range-bound prices as the Bank of Canada (BoC) endorses a wait-and-see approach, while the bearish RSI momentum continues to take shape.
After flipping last week, DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-short USD/CAD going into April, with the ratio currently standing at -1.19.
AUD/USD
String of closes above the 0.7570 (50% expansion) to 0.7590 (100% expansion) may continue to produce range-bound prices in AUD/USD; outlook remains mired amid growing speculation for another rate cut at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) April 7 policy meeting.
At the same time, a further slowdown in China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) may heighten the bearish sentiment surrounding the Australian dollar.
Break/close below the near-term support zone would expose the next downside target around 0.7490-0.7500 especially as the RSI fails to retain the bullish momentum from earlier this month.
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Read More:
Price & Time: Quarter-end Driving USD Or Something More?
Scalp Webinar: USD Defends Support Slope- Bulls at Risk Ahead of NFP
USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):
Index
Last
High
Low
Daily Change (%)
Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index
12058.68
12081.33
12032.56
0.17
54.32%
Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Growing evidence that the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar index has carved out a higher-low in March as the RSI threatens the bearish formation; may see fresh highs as the ascending channel formation remains in play.
Will keep a close eye on the ADP Employment report & the ISM Manufacturing survey as it may shape market expectations for the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report.
With the USDOLLAR approaching 12,052 (23.6% retracement), a close above 12,082 (61.8% expansion) may spur a more meaningful run at 12,176 (78.6% expansion).
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Release
GMT
Expected
Actual
ISM Milwaukee (MAR)
13:00
51.50
53.25
S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City s.a. (MoM) (JAN)
13:00
0.65%
0.87%
S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City (YoY) (JAN)
13:00
4.60%
4.56%
S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index (MoM) (JAN)
13:00
—
0.57%
S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index (YoY) (JAN)
13:00
—
4.47%
S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index n.s.a. (JAN)
13:00
—
166.66
Chicago Purchasing Manager Index (MAR)
13:45
51.7
46.3
Consumer Confidence (MAR)
14:00
96.4
101.3
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— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.
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Source: Daily fx