Talking Points:
US Dollar, Yen, Commodity FX Set Sights on March FOMC Meeting Minutes
New Zealand Dollar Gains Alongside Asian Stocks on Firming Risk Appetite
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A relatively quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see investors looking ahead to the release of minutes from the March Federal Reserve policy meeting for direction cues. Traders will be keen for confirmation of the dovish shift in timing bets on the first post-QE rate hike. Futures markets reveal a lean toward an increase in October after Friday’s dismal payrolls data, a far cry from earlier speculation about June or July.
Signs of trepidation on the rate-setting FOMC committee are likely to weigh on the US Dollar and may boost risk appetite, offering a lift to sentiment-sensitive Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars while punishing the safety-linked Japanese Yen. Alternatively, rhetoric suggesting Janet Yellen and company will look through the dip in economic activity in the first quarter – a move similar to their steadfast commitment to “tapering” QE even as growth slid in the first three months of 2014 – may generate the opposite dynamic.
The Kiwi Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.3 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move mirrored an advance on Asian stock exchanges, pointing to a swell in risk appetite as the likely catalyst hind gains.
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Asia Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
23:01
GBP
BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (MAR)
-2.1%
–
-1.7%
23:30
AUD
ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf
109.7
–
112.3
23:50
JPY
BoP Current Account Balance (¥) (FEB)
1440.1B
1196.0B
61.4B
23:50
JPY
BoP Current Account Adjusted (¥) (FEB)
603.5B
605.0B
1058.1B
23:50
JPY
Trade Balance BoP Basis (FEB)
-143.1B
-239.9B
-864.2B
–
JPY
BOJ Annual Rise in Monetary Base (¥)
80T
80T
3:00
JPY
BOJ Kuroda Press Conference
–
–
–
5:00
JPY
Eco Watchers Survey: Current (MAR)
50.5
50.1
5:00
JPY
Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (MAR)
53.5
53.2
European Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP
PREV
IMPACT
6:00
EUR
German Factory Orders (MoM) (FEB)
1.5%
-3.9%
Medium
6:00
EUR
German Factory Orders WDA (YoY) (FEB)
0.5%
-0.1%
Medium
6:45
EUR
France Trade Balance (FEB)
-3800M
-3726M
Low
7:15
CHF
CPI (MoM) (MAR)
0.1%
-0.3%
Medium
7:15
CHF
CPI (YoY) (MAR)
-1.1%
-0.8%
Medium
7:15
CHF
CPI – EU Harmonized (MoM) (MAR)
0.1%
-0.4%
Low
7:15
CHF
CPI – EU Harmonized (YoY) (MAR)
-0.9%
-0.4%
Low
7:30
EUR
Markit Germany Construction PMI (MAR)
–
53.1
Medium
7:45
JPY
Bankruptcies (YoY) (MAR)
–
-11.5%
Low
8:00
GBP
New Car Registrations (YoY) (MAR)
–
12.0%
Low
8:10
EUR
Markit Germany Retail PMI (MAR)
–
51.5
Medium
8:10
EUR
Markit Eurozone Retail PMI (MAR)
–
46.4
Medium
8:10
EUR
Markit France Retail PMI (MAR)
–
43.6
Low
8:10
EUR
Markit Italy Retail PMI (MAR)
–
42.3
Low
9:00
EUR
Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) (FEB)
-0.2%
1.1%
Medium
9:00
EUR
Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) (FEB)
2.8%
3.7%
Medium
Critical Levels
CCY
Supp 3
Supp 2
Supp 1
Pivot Point
Res 1
Res 2
Res 3
EURUSD
1.0556
1.0707
1.0761
1.0858
1.0912
1.1009
1.1160
GBPUSD
1.4608
1.4726
1.4767
1.4844
1.4885
1.4962
1.5080
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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