Talking Points:
September Fed Rate Hike Bets May Swell if US Retail Sales Tops Forecasts
US Dollar Outperformed in Asia, Correcting After Yesterday’s Sharp Selloff
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A relatively quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see markets looking ahead to July’s US Retail Sales report for direction cues. Receipts are expected to rise 0.6 percent, marking an improvement over the prior month’s 0.3 percent decline.
On the whole, US data outcomes have increasingly outperformed relative to consensus forecasts since mid-May. That opens the door for an upside surprise, which may fuel speculation about a September interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve and boost the US Dollar.
The greenback outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.2 percent on average against its top counterparts. The move appeared to be corrective after yesterday’s broad-based decline produced the largest single-day drop in two months.
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Asia Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
22:30
NZD
BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI (JUL)
53.5
–
55.1
22:45
NZD
Food Prices (MoM) (JUL)
0.6%
–
0.5%
23:01
GBP
RICS House Price Balance (JUL)
44.0%
42.0%
40.0%
23:01
NZD
REINZ House Sales (YoY) (JUL)
37.8%
–
29.2%
23:50
JPY
Machine Orders (MoM) (JUN)
-7.9%
-4.8%
0.6%
23:50
JPY
Machine Orders (YoY) (JUN)
16.6%
17.6%
19.3%
01:00
AUD
Consumer Inflation Expectation (AUG)
3.7%
–
3.4%
European Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP/ACT
PREV
IMPACT
06:00
EUR
German CPI (MoM) (JUL F)
0.2% (A)
0.2%
Medium
06:00
EUR
German CPI (YoY) (JUL F)
0.2% (A)
0.2%
Medium
06:00
EUR
German CPI – EU Harmonized (MoM) (JUL F)
0.3% (A)
0.3%
Medium
06:00
EUR
German CPI – EU Harmonized (YoY) (JUL F)
0.1% (A)
0.1%
Medium
07:15
CHF
Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (JUL)
-0.3% (A)
-0.1%
Low
07:15
CHF
Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (JUL)
-6.4% (A)
-6.1%
Low
11:30
EUR
ECB July Meeting Minutes
–
–
Medium
Critical Levels
CCY
Supp 3
Supp 2
Supp 1
Pivot Point
Res 1
Res 2
Res 3
EURUSD
1.0755
1.0944
1.1051
1.1133
1.1240
1.1322
1.1511
GBPUSD
1.5353
1.5478
1.5545
1.5603
1.5670
1.5728
1.5853
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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Source: Daily fx