Talking Points:
British Pound Vulnerable if Soft PMI Data Weighs on BOE Tightening Bets
US Dollar May Rise if ISM Print Builds on Hawkish FOMC Policy Statement
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October’s UK Manufacturing PMI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. Expectations point to a print at 51.3, marking the third consecutive slowdown in the pace of factory-sector activity growth. UK news-flow has weakened relative to consensus forecasts recently (according to data from Citigroup), opening the door for a downside surprise. That may stoke speculation of a dovish turn in BOE rhetoric at this week’s policy meeting, weighing on the British Pound.
Later in the day, the spotlight turns to the US ISM Manufacturing index. A drop to 50.0 is expected, amounting to the fourth consecutive deterioration and the lowest reading since December 2012. Realized US data outcomes have cautiously improved relative to expectations in the past month, recent disappointments notwithstanding. That hints at the possibility of a better-than-forecast print, which could build on last week’s hawkish FOMC statement and boost the US Dollar.
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Asia Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
01:00
CNY
Manufacturing PMI (OCT)
49.8
50.0
49.8
01:00
CNY
Non-manufacturing PMI (OCT)
53.1
–
53.4
22:30
AUD
AiG Perf of Mfg Index (OCT)
50.2
–
52.1
23:00
AUD
CoreLogic RP Data House Px (MoM) (OCT)
0.2%
–
0.9%
23:30
AUD
TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (OCT)
0.0%
–
0.3%
23:30
AUD
TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (OCT)
1.8%
–
1.9%
00:30
AUD
Building Approvals (MoM) (SEP)
2.2%
1.0%
-9.5%
00:30
AUD
Building Approvals (YoY) (SEP)
21.4%
24.1%
4.7%
01:35
JPY
Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg (OCT F)
52.4
–
52.5
01:45
CNY
Caixin China PMI Mfg (OCT)
48.3
47.6
47.2
05:00
JPY
Vehicle Sales (YoY) (OCT)
0.2%
–
-3.0%
05:30
AUD
Commodity Index AUD (OCT)
79.1
–
81.4
05:30
AUD
Commodity Index (YoY) (OCT)
-19.8%
–
-21.3%
European Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP
PREV
IMPACT
08:00
CHF
Total Sight Deposits (OCT 30)
–
467.0B
Low
08:00
CHF
Domestic Sight Deposits (OCT 30)
–
401.2B
Low
08:15
CHF
Retail Sales Real (YoY) (SEP)
–
-0.3%
Low
08:30
CHF
PMI Manufacturing (OCT)
50.1
49.5
Medium
08:45
EUR
Markit/ADACI Italy Mfg PMI (OCT)
53.1
52.7
Low
08:50
EUR
Markit France Mfg PMI (OCT F)
50.7
50.7
Low
08:55
EUR
Markit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (OCT F)
51.6
51.6
Medium
09:00
EUR
Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI (OCT F)
52.0
52.0
Medium
09:30
GBP
Markit UK Mfg PMI SA (OCT)
51.3
51.5
High
Critical Levels
CCY
Supp 3
Supp 2
Supp 1
Pivot Point
Res 1
Res 2
Res 3
EURUSD
1.0803
1.0909
1.0957
1.1015
1.1063
1.1121
1.1227
GBPUSD
1.5081
1.5241
1.5335
1.5401
1.5495
1.5561
1.5721
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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