Talking Points:
Aussie, Kiwi Dollars Drop After Disappointing Australian 3Q GDP Report
British Pound Looks to Composite PMI Data to Inform BOE Policy Outlook
US Dollar May Rise as Upbeat Fed Beige Book Keeps Rate Hike Bets Alive
The Australian Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 0.6 percent, following a disappointing GDP data showing the economy added just 0.3 percent in the third quarter. That marked the smallest increase since the first quarter of 2013 and fell short of forecasts calling for a 0.7 percent increase.
The Aussie’s descent tracked a drop in Australia’s benchmark 10-year bond yield, hinting the soft outcome weighed on RBA monetary policy expectations. Indeed, a gauge of the priced-in outlook from Credit Suisse shows markets are now leaning toward seeing at least one interest rate cut over the coming 12 months.
The New Zealand Dollar followed its Oceanic counterpart downward. Australia is New Zealand’s largest trading partner and a slowdown there warns of ebbing cross-border demand ahead, which bodes ill for the island nation’s growth and monetary policy prospects.
November’s UK Composite PMI data headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The index is expected to register at 56.2, marking the first acceleration in manufacturing- and service-sector growth in three months.
UK news-flow has cautiously improved relative to consensus forecasts over recent weeks, hinting that analysts are underestimating the economy’s vigor and opening the door for an upside surprise. Such an outcome may fuel bets on the relatively sooner onset of BOE interest rate hikes, boosting the British Pound.
The spotlight then turns to November’s US ADP Employment report and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite figure. The former is seen showing the pace of job creation (+222K) slowed compared with September (+230K) while the latter reflects a pickup in service-sector activity growth (56.5 vs. 56.3 prior).
US data outcomes have been broadly stable relative to consensus forecasts since early October. This means realized results will probably register close to expectations, leaving the US Dollar torn between conflicting cues. An upbeat Fed Beige Book survey of regional economic conditions may be a tie-breaker, sending the greenback higher amid firming Fed rate hike bets.
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Asia Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
21:45
NZD
Value of All Buildings (3Q)
1.5%
2.6%
0.5%
22:30
AUD
AiG Performance of Service Index (NOV)
43.8
–
43.6
23:50
JPY
Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (OCT)
2.55%
–
2.24%
0:01
GBP
BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (NOV)
-1.9%
–
-1.9%
0:30
AUD
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (3Q)
0.3%
0.7%
0.5%
0:30
AUD
Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (3Q)
2.7%
3.1%
2.7%
1:00
CNY
Non-Manufacturing PMI (NOV)
53.9
–
53.8
1:35
JPY
Markit Services PMI (NOV)
50.6
–
48.7
1:35
JPY
Markit/JMMA Composite PMI (NOV)
51.2
–
49.5
1:45
CNY
HSBC Services PMI (NOV)
53.0
–
52.9
1:45
CNY
HSBC Composite PMI (NOV)
51.1
–
51.7
European Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP
PREV
IMPACT
6:45
CHF
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (3Q)
0.3%
0.2%
Medium
6:45
CHF
Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (3Q)
1.4%
1.4%
Medium
8:45
EUR
Markit/ADACI Italy Services PMI (NOV)
50.2
50.8
Low
8:45
EUR
Markit/ADACI Italy Comp PMI (NOV)
49.6
50.4
Low
8:50
EUR
Markit France Services PMI (NOV F)
48.8
48.8
Low
8:50
EUR
Markit France Composite PMI (NOV F)
48.4
48.4
Low
8:55
EUR
Markit Germany Services PMI (NOV F)
52.1
52.1
Low
8:55
EUR
Markit/BME Germany Comp PMI (NOV F)
52.1
52.1
Low
9:00
EUR
Markit Eurozone Services PMI (NOV F)
51.3
51.3
Low
9:00
EUR
Markit Eurozone Comp PMI (NOV F)
51.4
51.4
Low
9:30
GBP
Official Reserves (Changes) (NOV)
–
-$652M
Low
9:30
GBP
Markit/CIPS UK Comp PMI (NOV F)
56.2
55.8
Medium
9:30
GBP
Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI (NOV)
56.5
56.2
Medium
10:00
EUR
Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) (OCT)
1.6%
0.6%
Low
10:00
EUR
Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) (OCT)
0.5%
-1.3%
Low
Critical Levels
CCY
Supp 3
Supp 2
Supp 1
Pivot Point
Res 1
Res 2
Res 3
EURUSD
1.2214
1.2313
1.2348
1.2412
1.2447
1.2511
1.2610
GBPUSD
1.5449
1.5560
1.5598
1.5671
1.5709
1.5782
1.5893
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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