Talking Points:
US Dollar Looking to Fed-Speak for Guidance Amid Fed Policy Speculation
Canadian Dollar Down Before Jobs Data in Otherwise Quiet Overnight Trade
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The economic calendar is quiet in European trading hours, leaving traders wait for the day’s helping of official Fed commentary to offer direction cues. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker – a member of the rate-setting FOMC committee – is due to cross the wires.
The US Dollar has made a bid to renew its long-term uptrend after the release of minutes from the March Fed policy meeting earlier this week reignited the possibility of a mid-year interest rate cut. Mr Lacker is a relatively neutral voice on the FOMC. If his remarks hint at the serious probability of “liftoff” at the June/July policy meetings, the greenback may extend yesterday’s advance.
The Canadian Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 0.2 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move may reflect pre-positioning ahead of the upcoming release of March Unemployment figures.
Expectations suggest the jobless rate will rise to 6.9 percent, the highest in six months, which may inspire the Bank of Canada to deliver additional monetary stimulus. Indeed, the Loonie’s decline since mid-2014 tracked a parallel slide in front-end bond yields, pointing to a dovish shift in policy bets as the catalyst.
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Asia Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
23:50
JPY
Bank Lending incl. Trusts (YoY) (MAR)
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
23:50
JPY
Bank Lending ex-Trusts (YoY) (MAR)
2.7%
2.8%
2.6%
1:30
CNY
CPI (YoY) (MAR)
1.4%
1.3%
1.4%
1:30
CNY
PPI (YoY) (MAR)
-4.6%
-4.8%
-4.8%
1:30
AUD
Home Loans (MoM) (FEB)
1.2%
3.0%
-1.7%
1:30
AUD
Investment Lending (MoM) (FEB)
-3.4%
–
-0.3%
1:30
AUD
Owner-Occupier Loan Value (MoM) (FEB)
0.5%
–
0.7%
European Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP/ACT
PREV
IMPACT
5:45
CHF
Unemployment Rate (MAR)
3.4% (A)
3.5%
Low
5:45
CHF
Unemployment Rate SA (MAR)
3.2% (A)
3.2%
Low
8:30
GBP
Industrial Production (MoM) (FEB)
0.3%
-0.1%
Medium
8:30
GBP
Industrial Production (YoY) (FEB)
0.3%
1.3%
Medium
8:30
GBP
Manufacturing Production (MoM) (FEB)
0.4%
-0.5%
Medium
8:30
GBP
Manufacturing Production (YoY) (FEB)
1.3%
1.9%
Medium
8:30
GBP
Construction Output SA (MoM) (FEB)
2.2%
-2.6%
Low
8:30
GBP
Construction Output SA (YoY) (FEB)
1.9%
-3.1%
Low
Critical Levels
CCY
Supp 3
Supp 2
Supp 1
Pivot Point
Res 1
Res 2
Res 3
EURUSD
1.0393
1.0544
1.0602
1.0695
1.0753
1.0846
1.0997
GBPUSD
1.4359
1.4560
1.4637
1.4761
1.4838
1.4962
1.5163
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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Source: Daily fx