Talking Points:
Hawkish Tone from Fed VC Fischer to Lift US Dollar, Fuel Risk Aversion
Pound May Rise as Comments BOE Governor Carney Boost Rate Hike Bets
Gauge Trends and Spot Reversals in Leading Currencies with DailyFX SSI
A relatively quiet economic data docket puts central bank commentary in the spotlight in European and US trading hours. Comments from Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischerought to be particularly interesting because he tends to reflect the middle-ground consensus on the policy-setting FOMC committee. Rhetoric hinting the central bank will look past recent market turmoil to press on with rate hikes may boost the US Dollar and fuel risk aversion.
BOE Governor Mark Carney is also scheduled to speak. Investors will parse his remarks to gauge policymakers’ confidence in overcoming imported disinflation from the Eurozone to raise rates in 2016. A recent dovish shift in market expectations suggests surprise risk is tilted on the upside for the British Pound in the event that Carney strikes a hawkish chord, clashing with the priced-in outlook and forcing re-positioning.
The sentiment-linked Australian and Canadian Dollars underperformed while standby funding currencies – the Euro, Yen and Swiss Franc – traded higher amid risk aversion in overnight trade. Japanese markets opened for the week having been closed for a holiday on Monday and took their turn to price in the same negativity that punished other regional bourses yesterday. This dragged down regional equities performance and echoed in currency markets.
Losing Money Trading Forex? This Might Be Why.
Asia Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
22:30
AUD
Weekly Consumer Confidence Index (JAN 10)
114.1
–
116.3
23:50
JPY
BoP Current Account Balance (NOV) (¥)
1143.5B
895.0B
1458.4B
23:50
JPY
BoP Current Account Adjusted (NOV) (¥)
1423.5B
1512.9B
1493.7B
23:50
JPY
Trade Balance BoP Basis (NOV) (¥)
-271.5B
-158.7B
200.2B
23:50
JPY
Bank Lending Incl Trusts (YoY) (DEC)
2.2%
–
2.3%
23:50
JPY
Bank Lending Ex-Trusts (YoY) (DEC)
2.2%
2.3%
2.3%
00:00
NZD
ANZ Commodity Price (DEC)
-1.8%
–
-5.6%
00:01
GBP
BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (DEC)
0.1%
0.5%
-0.4%
00:30
AUD
Credit Card Balances (NOV) (AUD)
51.3B
–
50.6B
00:30
AUD
Credit Card Purchases (NOV)
25.6B
–
24.8B
05:00
JPY
Consumer Confidence Index (DEC)
42.7
42.5
42.6
06:00
JPY
Eco Watchers Survey Current (DEC)
48.7
46.6
46.1
06:00
JPY
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (DEC)
48.2
48.0
48.2
European Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP
PREV
IMPACT
09:30
GBP
Industrial Production (MoM) (NOV)
0.0%
0.1%
Medium
09:30
GBP
Industrial Production (YoY) (NOV)
1.7%
1.7%
Medium
09:30
GBP
Manufacturing Production (MoM) (NOV)
0.1%
-0.4%
Medium
09:30
GBP
Manufacturing Production (YoY) (NOV)
-0.8%
-0.1%
Medium
10:30
EUR
ECB’s Praet Speaks in Paris
–
–
Low
10:30
USD
Fed Vice Chair Fischer Speaks in Paris
–
–
High
11:00
USD
NFIB Small Business Optimism (DEC)
95.0
94.8
Low
14:15
GBP
BOE Governor Carney Speaks in Paris
–
–
High
15:00
GBP
NIESR GDP Estimate (DEC)
–
0.6%
Medium
Critical Levels
CCY
Supp 3
Supp 2
Supp 1
Pivot Point
Res 1
Res 2
Res 3
EUR/USD
1.0648
1.0770
1.0815
1.0892
1.0937
1.1014
1.1136
GBP/USD
1.4327
1.4437
1.4490
1.4547
1.4600
1.4657
1.4767
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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Source: Daily fx