EUR/USD: Neutral: Bearish if daily closing below 1.1120.
The sharp drop yesterday is gaining momentum rapidly and a daily closing below 1.1120 would indicate that the 2-week neutral consolidation phase has ended (and the start of a bearish phase). This appears to be a likely scenario unless EUR can move and stay above 1.1210 within these 1 to 2 days.
GBP/USD: Bearish: Next support at 1.1500
GBP inexplicably plunged below 1.2000 during early Tokyo hours earlier. The outsized drop took out several major supports and the decline that started since mid-September is clearly not over. From here, a move back above yesterday’s NY closing of 1.2610 seems unlikely but in view of the dramatic drop earlier, it is also unlikely that we would see a ‘straight line’ down to the next support at 1.1500. In other words, volatility is expected to remain at elevated level but as long as 1.2610 is not taken out, the pressure is still on the downside
AUD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.7750/0.7710 range.
There is no change to the current neutral view on AUD but downward momentum has picked up with the weak daily closing yesterday. That said, we continue to hold the view that the current movement is part of a broader consolidation phase within a 0.7750/0.7710 range.
NZD/USD: Bearish: Downside limited to 0.7110 for now.
The 0.7110 target that was first highlighted on Wednesday appears to be within reach. As mentioned previously, this is a strong support and at this stage, a clear break below this level seems unlikely. That said, only a move back above 0.7205 would indicate that a shortterm low is in place
USD/JPY: Bullish: Next target at 104.30.
The 104.30 target appears to be within striking distance and in the event of a clear break of this level, the next focus would be on 105.00. Overall, the bullish USD phase that started on Wednesday (05/10/16) is intact.
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