EUR/USD: Bullish (since 28 Jun 17, 1.1335): To exit half of long position at 1.1435.
EUR closed lower for the second straight day and this does not bode well for our current bullish view. As highlighted in recent updates, the weekly trend-line at 1.1475 is a major resistance and EUR has to break above this level for further up-move to the next resistance at 1.1615. However, the lower daily closing yesterday has dented the upward momentum and a move below 1.1330 is enough to indicate that a temporary top is in place. In the meanwhile, those who are long from 1.1295 should look to exit half of their position at 1.1435, just below last week’s 1.1445 top.
GBP/USD: Bullish (since 29 Jun 17, 1.2935): Diminished odds for extension to 1.3045/50.
GBP unexpectedly dropped to an overnight low of 1.2932, several pips above the stop-loss for our bullish view at 1.2925. When we turned bullish last Thursday, 29 Jun 17 (spot at 1.2935) we were of the view that the sharp rally was over-extended but there is room for extension to the year-to-date high of near 1.3045/50. The high last Friday was 1.3030 and the rapid pull-back from the top does not bode well for further GBP strength. A move below 1.2925 would indicate that an interim top is in place and that GBP has moved into a consolidation phase. Until then, another push higher is not ruled out but the odds for extension to 1.3045/50 have clearly diminished.
NZD/USD: Further weakness not ruled out but 0.7250 is expected to hold for a recovery.
The 0.7350 resistance is more resilient than expected as NZD dropped sharply after touching a high of 0.7345. The sharp drop to a low of 0.7273 appears to be running ahead of itself and further sustained down-move is not expected. That said, a dip below the 0.7373 low would not be surprising but the next support at 0.7250 is expected to hold for a recovery. Resistance is at 0.7310, 0.7325 followed by the still very strong level of 0.7350.
USD/JPY: Bullish (since 20 Jun 17, 111.65): Above 113.50 could lead to further acceleration towards 114.35.
The bullish phase that started 2 weeks ago (see update on 20 Jun 17, spot at 111.65) is still clearly intact as USD soared to hit a high of 113.47 yesterday. This level is just below the strong daily trend-line resistance that is currently residing at 113.50. A break of this strong resistance could lead to further acceleration higher as the next significant resistance is another 85 pips higher at 114.35 (high in May). We have suggested exiting half of long position at 112.75 previously and those who are still long should move their stop-loss higher to 112.40 (from 111.30 previously).
Source: United Overseas Bank Global Economics & Markets ResearchOriginal Article
