Talking Points:
– EUR/USD Retail-Crowd Remains Net-Long Following ECB- Bearish Momentum in Focus.
– USD/JPY Climbs to Fresh Monthly High- Breakout on Tap?
– USDOLLAR Breaks Resistance- Topside Targets Remain on Radar Despite Mixed U.S. Data.
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EUR/USD
Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Despite the upbeat tone laid out by European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi, downside targets remain favored for EUR/USD as the RSI dips into oversold territory.
1.0970 (38.2% expansion) remains on the radar going into the Euro-Zone’s preliminary 4Q GDP report & will continue to favor the approach to ‘sell-bounces’ as the bearish momentum gathers pace.
Despite the fresh lows, DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long EUR/USD since March 3, with the ratio currently holding at +1.21.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY runs greater risk for a more meaningful advance as it attempts to breakout of the triangle/wedge formation; continuation pattern favors the approach to ‘buy-dips’ in dollar-yen.
Looks as though former resistance around 119.60 (23.6% retracement) to 119.80 (100% expansion) may offer near-term support ahead of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) interest rate decision on March 17.
Would like to see a close above the last swing-high (120.44) for conviction/confirmation of a bullish breakout in USD/JPY.
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Read More:
Price & Time: Happy Anniversary GBP/USD
Trade Setups in EUR-crosses and Expectations for ECB Meeting
USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):
Index
Last
High
Low
Daily Change (%)
Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index
11916.18
11920.36
11869.87
0.37
100.94%
Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar topside targets remain in focus ahead of U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) as it breaks to a fresh monthly highs.
Despite expectations for another 235K rise in NFP, will keep a close eye on the wage growth figures as Average Hourly Earnings are projected to slow to an annualized 2.1% from 2.2% the month prior.
Will continue to look for opportunities to buy the USDOLLAR, with the next topside region of interest coming in around 11,970 (161.8% expansion)
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Release
GMT
Expected
Actual
Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (FEB)
12:30
—
20.9%
Nonfarm Productivity (4Q F)
13:30
-2.3%
-2.2%
Unit Labor Costs (4Q F)
13:30
3.3%
4.1%
Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 28)
13:30
295K
320K
Continuing Claims (FEB 21)
13:30
2395K
2421K
Factory Orders (JAN)
15:00
0.2%
-0.2%
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— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.
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Source: Daily fx