Talking Points:
British Pound at Risk if Industrial Production Data Falls Short of Forecasts
ECB Commentary in Focus for the Euro as Traders Build Policy Expectations
Yen Outperformed on Haven Demand as Japan’s Nikkei 225 Fell Overnight
UK Industrial Production figures headline an otherwise quiet economic calendar in European hours. The year-on-year growth rate is expected to have accelerated to 2.8 percent in April, marking a three-month high. UK news-flow has increasingly deteriorated relative to consensus forecasts over recent weeks, hinting analysts are overestimating the health of the economy and opening the door for downside surprises. A disappointing print may weigh against supportive BOE policy expectations, punishing the British Pound. We are looking for a GBPUSD selling opportunity.
On the commentary front, a busy round-up of ECB officials is on tap. Governing Council members Erkki Liikanen, Benoit Coeure and Yves Mersch are all set to cross the wires. Traders will be looking for expanded policy guidance after last week’s announcement of expanded stimulus measures failed to produce a Euro breakout. Rhetoric suggesting the central bank is preparing to top-up stimulus further is likely to weigh on the single currency, and vice versa.
The Japanese Yen outperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade as the island nation’s benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index declined, feeding haven demand for the safety-linked currency. The Yen rose as much as 0.2 percent on average against its major counterparts.
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Asia Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
22:00
NZD
ANZ Truckometer Heavy (MoM) (MAY)
-2.1%
–
1.2%
22:45
NZD
Manufacturing Activity (1Q)
0.6%
–
6.0%
22:45
NZD
Manufacturing Activity Volume (QoQ) (1Q)
0.5%
–
5.4%
23:01
GBP
BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (MAY)
0.5%
1.6%
4.2%
23:50
JPY
Money Stock M2 (YoY) (MAY)
3.3%
3.2%
3.5%
23:50
JPY
Money Stock M3 (YoY) (MAY)
2.6%
2.7%
2.8%
23:50
JPY
Tertiary Industry Index (MoM)
-5.4%
-3.5%
2.4%
1:30
AUD
NAB Business Confidence (MAY)
7
–
7
1:30
AUD
NAB Business Conditions (MAY)
-1
–
0
1:30
AUD
Home Loans (APR)
0.0%
0.2%
-0.8%
1:30
AUD
Investment Lending (APR)
2.3%
–
-0.6%
1:30
AUD
Value of Loans (MoM) (APR)
1.4%
–
-1.0%
1:30
AUD
ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (MAY)
-6.0%
–
1.9%
1:30
CNY
CPI (YoY) (MAY)
2.5%
2.4%
1.8%
1:30
CNY
PPI (YoY) (MAY)
-1.4%
-1.5%
-2.0%
European Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP
PREV
IMPACT
5:45
CHF
Unemployment Rate (MAY)
3.1%
3.2%
Medium
5:45
CHF
Unemployment Rate s.a. (MAY)
3.1%
3.2%
Medium
6:00
JPY
Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (MAY P)
–
48.7%
Low
7:15
CHF
Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (APR)
–
3.0%
Low
8:30
GBP
Industrial Production (MoM) (APR)
0.4%
-0.1%
Medium
8:30
GBP
Industrial Production (YoY) (APR)
2.8%
2.3%
Medium
8:30
GBP
Manufacturing Production (MoM) (APR)
0.4%
0.5%
Medium
8:30
GBP
Manufacturing Production (YoY) (APR)
4.0%
3.3%
Medium
9:00
EUR
Italian GDP (YoY) (1Q F)
-0.5%
-0.5%
Low
9:00
EUR
Italian GDP (QoQ) (1Q F)
-0.1%
-0.1%
Low
Critical Levels
CCY
Supp 3
Supp 2
Supp 1
Pivot Point
Res 1
Res 2
Res 3
EUR/USD
1.3443
1.3529
1.3562
1.3615
1.3648
1.3701
1.3787
GBP/USD
1.6710
1.6758
1.6781
1.6806
1.6829
1.6854
1.6902
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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