NZD/USD Failure to Close Above 0.7700 Raises Risk for Near-Term Top

Talking Points:
– NZD/USD Hit by Dovish RBNZ Comment- Bullish Momentum at Risk.
– USD/CAD Risks Fresh Monthly Lows Amid Series of Lower-Highs.
– USDOLLAR Outlook Mired by Fed Uncertainty; 11,950 Support in Focus.

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NZD/USD

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Looks as though NZD/USD will continue to make failed attempts to close above 0.7675 (23.6% retracement) 0.7700 (50% expansion) as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) sees scope to revert back to its easing cycle.
Nevertheless, will retain a constructive view on NZD/USD going into the RBNZ’s April 30 interest rated decision as long as price & the Relative Strength Index (RSI) preserve the bullish trend carried over from March.
Even though the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-short NZD/USD since April 23, open interest has slipped 11% with the ratio narrowing to -1.02.

USD/CAD

Despite expectations for a test of former support around 1.2360 (38.2% retracement) to 1.2390 (161.8% expansion), lack of momentum to close back above the 1.2300 handle may highlight a near-term topping process in USD/CAD.
Dollar-loonie remains at risk for a further decline as the bearish RSI momentum gathers pace; break into oversold territory may foreshadow a more aggressive selloff in the exchange rate.
Break/close below 1.2070 (38.2% retracement) to 1.2110 (61.8% retracement) raises the risk for a larger correction in USD/CAD.

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Read More:
Price & Time: CAD Questions Remain
GBPJPY Breakout Eyes 181- Long Scalps Favored Above 179

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11964.97

12022.13

11961.77

-0.24

87.22%

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar struggling to hold its ground following the slew of dismal data; close below 11,950 (38.2% expansion)/11,960 (50-Day SMA) may spark a larger correction ahead of the Fed’s April 29 interest rate decision.
May continue to see range-bound prices going into the end of April as U.S. Durable Goods Orders are projected to rebound 0.6% in March; will keep a close eye on Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders excluding Aircrafts, a proxy for future business investments.
As the bearish RSI momentum continues to take shape, will continue to watch 11,869 (23.6% expansion) to 11,901 (78.6% expansion) for key support.

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Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Initial Jobless Claims (APR 18)