Talking Points
NZDJPY signals near-term reversal off July high
Scalps look to sell rallies
Event Risk on tap next week from New Zealand & Japan
NZDJPY Daily Chart
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
NZDJPY weekly & monthly opening ranges break- bearish
Interim support 88.20/33- Break targets objectives at Aug TL support, 2012 TL support, 8730
Resistance at 88.67, 89.45/50, 89.91- bearish invalidation
Daily RSI support trigger break on building divergence in price- bearish
Event Risk Ahead:RBNZ rate decision, Trade Balance & Japan Trade Balance next week (7/23)
NZDJPY 30min Chart
Notes: A break of the weekly opening range low yesterday shifted the bias to the short-side of NZDUSD with the resulting sell-off now pressing below the July opening range low a t 88.67. The pair rebounded off of near-term support today at 88.20/34 and shorts into this region should be treated with caution until the break.
Bottom line: look to sell rallies while below 89.15 (weekly ORL/61.8% retracement) with a break below 88.20 targeting subsequent support targets into 87.30. A breach above 89.15 puts us neutral with only a breach above 89.55 shifting our focus back to the 2014 high at 89.90 and beyond.
Caution is warranted as we head into event risk next week with the RBNZ rate decision and trade balance coming out on the on the same day as the Japanese trade balance figures. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Key Threshold Grid
Entry/Exit Targets
Timeframe
Level
Technical Relevance
Resistance Target 1
Daily / 30min
88.65/67
23.6% Retracement / July ORL
Resistance Target 2
30min
88.84
38.2% Retracement
Resistance Target 3
30min
89.00
50% Retracement
Bearish Invalidation
30min
89.15
Weekly ORL / 61.8% Retracement
Break Target 1
30min
89.38
78.6% Retracement
Break Target 2
Daily / 30min
89.55/66
Weekly ORH / July High
Break Target 5
Daily
89.90
2014 High
Bullish Invalidation
Daily / 30min
88.20/34
1.732 Ext / Wkly Low / 38.2% Retrace / June Pivot
Break Target 1
30min
88.00
50DMA / ~ August TL Support
Break Target 2
30min
87.75
50% Retracement
Break Target 3
Daily / 30min
87.30
61.8% Retracement / April Lows
Break Target 3
30min
86.66
78.6% Retracement / ~ 2012 TL Support
Break Target 4
Daily / 30min
86.28/29
78.6% & 88.6% Retracement(s)
Average True Range
Daily (20)
51
Profit Targets 13-16pips
*ORH: Opening Range High
*ORL: Opening Range Low
Other Setups in Play:
GBPUSD Posts Outside Reversal Off Key Support- Bullish Above 1.7065
NZDUSD Opening Range Setup- Rally Vulnerable Sub 8850
GBPJPY Targets Channel Support- Longs Favored Above 173.75
AUDUSD July Range Targets Key Support- Shorts Favored Sub 9440
EURUSD July Opening Range Play- Shorts Favored Sub 1.37
AUDCHF Rebounds Off Key Support- Longs Favored Above 8360
GBPJPY Testing Key Inflection Zone- Shorts at Risk Above 172.70
GBPCAD Scalps Target Weekly Range- Bullish Bias at Risk Sub 1.8480
—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
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Source: Daily fx
